Indian Wells kicks off with a slate of exciting matches!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups: Maria vs Rus and Woniacki vs Zhu.
Read on to find WTA Indian Wells picks for Wednesday, March 6.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Tatjana Maria (+100) vs Arantxa Rus (-120)
4 p.m. ET
Arantxa Rus last played on the quick courts of Dubai, falling 2-6, 4-6 in her opening match against Victoria Azarenka. Rus won just 53% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The Dutch also won just 28% of her return points, breaking just once.
Rus is now 5-5 this season on hard courts, although she has a solid 238-186 career-record on hard. The Dutch is 414-191 as a professional on clay, which is important given how slow and high-bouncing these courts are. Rus has a tricky lefty game, controlling the court with her heavy, powerful forehand which she uses to effectively attack her opposition. Rus moves well around the court and showcases good footwork to allow her to consistently hit forehands.
But, while Rus' flatter backhand can cut through the court, that wing is a liability for the Dutch.
Tatjana Maria last competed in San Diego, losing 7-5, 6-7(2), 2-6 to Daria Saville. Maria won just 52% of her service points, getting broken seven times. The German did win 45% of her return points, generating 23 break points and breaking on six occasions.
The 36 year-old German is 6-7 on hard courts in 2024, going 335-276 on the surface for her career. On clay, which is important to look at for Indian Wells, Maria is 233-186. Maria is best on quick, low-bouncing surfaces, as her cutting slices stay low and she is strong at the net, with tennis IQ to understand when to move forward. Maria also can hit with power behind her forehand.
However, along with a shaky backhand, the German lacks physicality and foot speed at her age. In addition, the Indian Wells courts are high-bouncing and slow, which don't suit her game.
Rus' game much-better suits the Indian Wells conditions. Rus has the rally tolerance and consistent depth to keep points alive and neutralize Maria's attacking game, while also having the controlled aggression to hit into the openings that she creates.
Maria's slices should be less effective than usual and Rus should drag her into longer rallies, testing the German's fitness. It should also be tougher for Maria to find opportunities to move forward.
In addition, Rus' lefty forehand should go into Maria's weaker backhand wing.
Pick: Rus ML (-130 via BetMGM)
Caroline Wozniacki (-130) vs Lin Zhu (+105)
7 p.m. ET
Lin Zhu was last in San Diego, falling in her opening match against Daria Saville, 3-6, 3-6. Zhu won 52% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The Chinese also won just 36% of her return points, breaking Saville just once.
Zhu is 8-7 on hard courts this season, but has a strong 380-229 professional record on the surface. However, on clay, Zhu is just 26-26 for her career. Zhu has a well-placed serve and a forehand that she uses to dictate play. Her backhand can be a threat, although it's more likely to break down. And Zhu's baseline game lacks overwhelming power, making it difficult for her to hit through her opposition on slower courts.
Caroline Wozniacki lost 6-1, 4-6, 1-6 to Anna Blinkova in her first match in San Diego. Wozniacki won just 49% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Dane did win 45% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Wozniacki, who won Indian Wells in 2011, is 1-3 on hard this year, but has an incredible 259-183 career-record on the surface. As a professional, Wozniacki has an impressive 123-64 record on clay, despite not being known for her play on the dirt. Wozniacki gets excellent consistent depth and is quick around the court, anticipating well. She has a high tennis IQ and she hits with controlled aggression with her backhand.
The Dane has a fairly solid forehand, although this wing is more prone to breaking down.
Wozniacki is much more comfortable in these conditions and her game, predicated on consistent depth and patience, is much better-suited Indian Wells.
Zhu has decent power from the ground, but even when she is in form she struggles to hit through excellent defenders on slower surfaces. And this has been particularly the case since reaching the Hua Hin final, as we recently saw against Saville in San Diego.
And, while Wozniacki isn't in the best form herself, there's nothing Zhu can do to take her out of her comfort zone.
Pick: Wozniacki ML (-104 via FanDuel)
