WTA Lyon, is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Wednesday with Linda Noskova vs. Mayar Sherif and Petra Martic vs. Alycia Parks.
I’ve found betting value on the two matches, and will discuss them below.
Read on for Lyon tennis odds and picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Petra Martic (-120) vs. Alycia Parks (-105)
9 a.m. ET
Petra Martic advanced in Lyon, defeating Kristina Mladenovic 3-6, 6-4, 7-5. Despite winning just 43% of her second serves, Martic won 73% of her first serves and hit nine aces. Martic also won 54% of her second-serve returns and broke serve four times, benefitting from 11 Mladenovic double faults.
Martic is now 3-3 on the season, although she did go 33-21 in 2022. The Croat has a high rally tolerance from the baseline. She uses her heavy forehand to manipulate the ball around the court, showcasing her high tennis IQ. A strength of Martic's game is her backhand slice, which stays low and out of her opponents' strike zones. Martic is best on clay, however.
Parks survived a tough opener, beating Julia Grabher 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. Parks won 71% of her first-serve points, but won just 45% of her second serves, hitting eight double faults. In addition, Parks won 53% of her second-serve return points, breaking on four occasions.
Parks went 25-17 on hard courts last season, although she is best known for 10-straight indoor hard matches, winning titles in Andorra and Angers to close the year. Parks served very well and hit highly aggressive groundstrokes with surprising accuracy. But Parks' low-margin tennis can sometimes lead to a flood of unforced errors and the American has cooled off, losing in Australian Open qualifying to Sara Bejlek.
Parks' run late last season was impressive, but she is not playing nearly the same quality of tennis that she was previously. Parks has a big serve and huge groundstrokes, but when she's a little off her game, she sprays unforced errors.
Martic has the defensive skills to keep rallies alive, forcing Parks to overhit. Martic's backhand slice will also be important in this matchup, as she will keep the ball out of the Parks' strike zone, making it much more difficult for her to attack.
When looking at Elo ratings, Martic's overall Elo is 99.1 points higher than Parks' and her hard-court Elo is 41.8 points higher than American's.
Pick: Martic ML (-120 via PointsBet)
Linda Noskova (-850) vs. Mayar Sherif (+470)
2 p.m. ET
After qualifying, Noskova comfortably defeated Garbine Muguruza 6-1, 6-4 in the main draw of Lyon. Noskova won 72% of her first serves and was only broken once. In addition, the Czech won 45% of her return points, including 56% on Muguruza's second serve, breaking on four occasions.
The 18-year old Noskova has already made the final of a WTA Tour tournament in Adelaide and has gone 9-2 to start the year. Noskova has a fairly big, well-placed serve that is firing in Lyon, with Noskova having been broken just four times in three matches. Noskova also plays with controlled aggression from the baseline and can do so from either wing.
Sherif beat Ana Konjuh 6-2, 3-2* via retirement in Lyon. Sherif won 74% of her service points and wasn't broken. On return, the Egyptian won 48% of her return points, which includes 58% of her second-serve returns. However, with Konjuh's injury, it's hard to take much away from this match.
Sherif's win in Lyon was a surprise given that she was miserable on hard courts last year, going just 4-12 on the surface. This is in stark contrast to the Egyptian's 26-5 record on clay in 2022. Sherif has a heavy forehand that she uses to dictate from the baseline. However, on hard courts, opponents are able to rush her. Sherif's forehand is much less effective off of clay, her backhand is shaky and her movement is not great.
While on clay this would be a different story, this is a fantastic matchup for Noskova on hard courts. The Czech will be able to dictate play with her easy power, exposing Sherif's lack of movement.
Noskova will also use her controlled aggression to rush Sherif's groundstrokes and attack her backhand wing. Sherif's backhand will leak errors, while her forehand will not do enough damage to make a difference.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
