The WTA Madrid Open is here and we are in for an exciting tournament!
I’ve found value on two of the April 25 matches — Muchova vs Kontaveit and Zhu vs Marino.
Read on for my WTA Madrid picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Odds, Picks
Karolina Muchova (-370) vs Anett Kontaveit (+270)
7 a.m. ET
Karolina Muchova last played in Miami, where she fell 5-7, 1-6 to Sorana Cirstea in the third round. Muchova won just 48% of her service points in that match and was broken five times. The Czech also broke just twice, with only 34% of her return points won.
It is important to note that during the Sunshine Swing, Muchova beat tough opponents such as Victoria Azarenka, Marketa Vondrousova and Jil Teichmann.
Muchova is a strong clay-court player, with a 100-53 career-record on the dirt. The altitude in Madrid rewards Muchova's attacking style. The Czech hits her spots on serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. Muchova is an all-court player, understanding point construction and the right moments to move forward. In addition, Muchova's net game is very strong.
Anett Kontaveit, after being out with a back injury, returned for Billie Jean King Cup, most recently losing 2-6, 4-6 to Despina Papamichail. It was Kontaveit's first match back against an opponent inside the top 300 in the world and she struggled from the baseline. Kontaveit struggled to control her power against Papamichail's defenses.
The Estonian does have an impressive 100-49 record on clay as a professional. At her best, she has a big serve and plays with controlled aggression from both wings. Kontaveit is often the one dictating play from the baseline. But, in her current state, Kontaveit's rally tolerance has plummeted.
For Kontaveit, the altitude works against her right now. Altitude makes balls fly out more often, so this should add to Kontaveit's consistency woes.
On the other hand, Muchova should use the altitude to help her attacking game style. The Czech should be the one in charge of points and putting pressure on Kontaveit. The Estonian has never defended nor absorbed pace particularly well, and that should be even more apparent given her lack of high-level match play.
Pick: Kontaveit to NOT win a set (-122 via FanDuel)
Lin Zhu (-115) vs Rebecca Marino (-110)
7:15 a.m. ET
Lin Zhu last played in Miami where she fell to Muchova 4-6, 2-6. Zhu won just 55% of her first serves, getting broken on four occasions.
Zhu is a solid 26-24 on clay for her career. While she's not known for her clay-court prowess, Zhu's game translates decently well to the surface. She gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes, moves well and can build points effectively on clay. Zhu is also a crafty player who can vary points to throw her opponents off balance. However, she can sometimes lack a bit of power on her serve and groundstrokes.
Rebecca Marino last played during the Billie Jean King Cup, as she lost 6-4, 4-6, 4-6 to Ysaline Bonaventure. Marino hit 15 aces and won 71% of her first serves, but also hit ten double faults and only won 31% of her second serves. Marino faced 20 break points, getting broken five times. On return, the Canadian won 62% of her second-serve return points, generating 19 break points and breaking four times.
Marino is just 25-28 on clay as a professional. She plays with a huge serve and while the altitude should help her produce more aces, it could also lead to another match of numerous double faults. Though Marino plays aggressively from the baseline, the altitude also makes it harder to control her flatter groundstrokes.
Marino is also not a great mover, doesn't have the best fitness and can go through patches of inconsistency.
Zhu is the better clay-court player, with the better rally tolerance of the two. In addition, the altitude should provide her with more punch on her groundstrokes.
She absorbs pace well and can use her clay-court craft to get Marino on the move and out of her comfort zone. On the other hand, the Canadian plays a very linear game.
Pick: Zhu ML (-115 via BetMGM)
