The first day of WTA Madrid was outstanding and the fun continues on Wednesday.
I’ve found value on two of the April 26 matches — Svitolina vs Sasnovich and Schmiedlova vs Parks.
Read on for my WTA Madrid picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Odds, Picks
Elina Svitolina (-132) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+108)
6:30 a.m. ET
Still fresh back on tour after maternity leave, Elina Svitolina narrowly lost to Clara Tauson 6-2, 6-7(3), 4-6 in an ITF $100k event in Oeiras last week. It was an encouraging match for the Ukrainian, as she was steady from the baseline and physically held up after so much time off. Svitolina largely absorbed Tauson's pace and she just came one point short of the match.
She has an impressive 116-63 professional-record on clay. While it's not the Ukrainian's best surface, she is very competent on the dirt. Svitolina has excellent consistent depth and is a fantastic mover, which makes it very difficult for opponents to hit through her. The Madrid altitude gives Svitolina's groundstrokes some extra punch and her ability to absorb pace is world class.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich last played in Charleston, where she fell 1-6, 7-6(5), 1-6 to Sofia Kenin. Sasnovich won just 52% of her service points and was broken five times. On return, the Belarusian won just 34% of her return points and failed to break serve.
Sasnovich has a strong 109-80 record on clay for her career. The Belarusian has decent power from both wings and hits her spots on serve. She has excellent variety from the baseline, as well. But, Sasnovich's rally tolerance comes and goes, with her forehand often misfiring. And, Sasnovich should become even more erratic in the altitude of Madrid.
Svitolina's rally tolerance should drive Sasnovich nuts. Svitolina should stay solid from the baseline and keep the ball deep in the court, frustrating Sasnovich.
The Ukranian has the more reliable baseline game and that should be the difference here.
Pick: Svitolina ML (-132 via FanDuel)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (-230) vs Alycia Parks (+182)
9:30 a.m. ET
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova did well to qualify for Madrid, defeating Kimberly Birrell 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 in the final qualifying round. Schmiedlova won just 57% of her service points and was broken four times. However, the Slovak won 47% of her return points, generating 17 break points and breaking six times.
Schmiedlova is a strong clay courter, with a 195-105 career-record on the dirt. She is very consistent from the baseline and gets excellent depth on her groundstrokes. Schmiedlova moves well, understands point construction on clay, and utilizes her heavy forehand, especially, to effectively spread the court. The Slovak also absorbs pace at a high level and counterpunches well.
Alycia Parks had yet another disappointing performance in her most recent match, falling to Qinwen Zheng 4-6, 4-6. Parks won 79% of her first serves, but hit 11 double faults and only won 44% of her second serves. The American was broken twice.
Parks is now just 51-58 on clay as a professional. Across all surfaces, the American has lost eight of her last 10 matches, winning just five sets during that stretch. Parks has a huge first serve, but can lose control of her second serve. And while Parks plays very aggressively from the baseline, she often bails out of rallies early going for high-risk groundstrokes. Parks doesn't look comfortable on clay, as it emphasizes point construction, an area of Parks' game that is lacking.
While the altitude will give Parks additional pop on her first serve, I worry about her ability to control her second serve and groundstrokes in these conditions. For a player who already lacks rally tolerance, putting Parks at altitude is a recipe for disaster. Expect plenty of double faults and unforced errors.
Schmiedlova should absorb Parks' pace and counterpunch effectively. The Slovak moves well around the court, so she should be able to defend against Parks' attacks and wait out the errors.
She is also used to the conditions, having played in qualifying already, whereas the American should be less comfortable in the Madrid conditions.
Pick: Schmiedlova -3.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
