WTA Madrid continues to excite and more fascinating matchup are set for Friday!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups – Paolini vs Jimenez Kasintseva and Zheng vs Putintseva.
Read on to find Madrid picks for Friday, April 26.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Open Odds, Predictions & Picks
Jasmine Paolini (-650) vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (+430)
6:30 a.m. ET
Jasmine Paolini last played in Stuttgart, falling 3-6, 7-5, 3-6 to eventual champion Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals. Paolini won just 55% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Italian also won 38% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Paolini has a strong 203-120 mark on hard courts for her career, although she lost her opening match in Madrid last season to Magdalena Frech. The Italian's always had excellent consistency, placement and movement, but she's now added additional firepower to her ground game, which should be accentuated in the altitude in Madrid. This is particularly the case from the 28 year-old's forehand wing. Paolini doesn't have the best reach when pulled out wide, however.
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva defeated Lin Zhu 6-4, 6-3 in her opening match in Madrid. Jimenez Kasintseva won 62% of her service points, getting broken twice. In addition, the Andorran won 47% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Jimenez Kasintseva has a solid 55-39 professional-record on the dirt, including a 6-3 mark this season. The 18 year-old dictates play with her huge, lefty forehand. Jimenez Kasintseva can take the racquet out of her opponents' hands from this wing and plays aggressively with her backhand, as well. However, the Andorran's rally tolerance is suspect, as she can become erratic very quickly, especially from her backhand side. In addition, Jimenez Kasintseva's point construction is fairly weak.
Paolini is better in nearly every aspect of the game compared to Jimenez Kasintseva. The Italian has better movement, consistency, placement and better control of her groundstrokes.
Paolini's foot speed and ability to absorb pace should allow her to blunt the Jimenez Kasintseva's power and the Andorran, who can often lack patience on court, should frequently overhit on her groundstrokes.
And Paolini's offensive game has evolved to the point where she can reliably handle the short balls that Jimenez Kasintseva coughs up, especially given that the 18 year-old's defensive skills are lacking.
Finally, Paolini's Elo rating is 575.4 points higher than Jimenez Kasintseva's and her clay Elo is 375.3 points above the Andorran's.
This should be a mismatch.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
Qinwen Zheng (-275) vs Yulia Putintseva (+210)
8:15 a.m. ET
Qinwen Zheng last competed in Stuttgart (clay), losing 2-6, 6-4, 5-7 in her second match. Zheng won 72% of her first serves, but just 45% of her second serves, getting broken on four occasions. In addition, the 21 year-old won 54% of her second-serve returns, breaking twice.
Zheng has an impressive 66-22 career-record on clay, although she fell in the third round of Madrid to Ekaterina Alexandrova last year. Zheng's powerful game includes her massive first serve and groundstrokes that rocket through the court, overwhelming many opponents with pace. There are times, though, where the Chinese loses control of her groundstrokes. And sometimes on clay, Zheng becomes too passive and willing to rally, instead of enforcing herself from the baseline.
Yulia Putintseva beat Yue Yuan 6-2, 6-4 in her first-round encounter in Madrid. Putintseva won 62% of her service points and was only broken once. The Kazakh also won 47% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Putintseva is now a strong 156-85 on clay as a professional, but she did lose her second match in Madrid to Caroline Garcia in 2023. Putintseva is quick, fit and anticipates well. The 29 year-old is excellent at absorbing pace, hits with good variety and can even dictate with her heavy forehand, hitting into precise locations. The Kazakh's backhand, while more prone to breaking down, is fairly solid too. With that said, there are times when Putintseva looks underpowered.
Putintseva has the defensive skills to absorb Zheng's pace and the racquet skills to effectively counterpunch against the Chinese's aggression. And the Madrid altitude should give Putintseva a little extra pop on her groundstrokes, allowing her to dictate a bit more easily.
And if Zheng tries to be more conservative against Putintseva and engage in long rallies, the Kazakh has endurance and consistency to out-maneuver Zheng during longer baseline exchanges, as this plays into the veteran's wheelhouse.
Zheng was inconsistent last week in Stuttgart, which is a recipe for disaster against Putintseva, especially given that the 29 year-old already has a match in the conditions.
Pick: Putintseva +1.5 sets (-135 via BetMGM)
