The quarterfinals of WTA Miami are already producing some spectacular tennis and the fun continues on Wednesday.
I’ve found value on both of Wednesday's fascinating quarterfinal matches, featuring Sabalenka vs Cirstea and Kvitova vs Alexandrova.
Read on for my WTA Miami picks for March 29.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Miami Odds, Picks
Aryna Sabalenka (-600) vs Sorana Cirstea (+410)
1 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka comfortably took down Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-2 to reach the Miami quarterfinals. Sabalenka hit eight aces, won 88% of her first serves (serving 70% first-serves in) and wasn't broken. On return, the Belarusian won 57% of her second-serve returns, allowing her to break three times.
Sabalenka, this year's Australian Open champion, is an astounding 20-2 on hard courts this year. She has a huge first serve and plays with controlled aggression from both wings, although she's particularly potent with her forehand. Sabalenka anticipates well, although she's not the fastest on court and can have some dips in her rally tolerance.
Sorana Cirstea continued her excellent form, hitting through Marketa Vondrousova in a 7-6(3), 6-4 victory. Cirstea won 80% of her first serves and was only broken once. On return, the Romanian won just 34% of her return points, but she did break on two occasions.
Cirstea has won eight of her past nine matches – all on hard courts – with a solid 12-7 overall record in 2023. For her career, the Romanian is 295-233 on hard.
She hasn't dropped a set this tournament, in large part because she hasn't been broken more than twice in a match. Cirstea doesn't have "extreme" power, but she has a strong forehand and can hit with consistent depth from both wings. Her anticipation skills and ability to absorb pace are also strong.
Sabalenka is a deserved favorite here, but Cirstea is in red-hot form and deserves more respect than she is being given.
Cirstea showed in her recentvictories over world No. 4 Caroline Garcia that her ability to defend and counterpunch is high enough to defeat an elite ball striker. The Romanian can neutralize rallies and she is patient enough to wait for her opportunity to strike.
Her excellent first-serve performance against a strong returner in Vondrousova is a good sign that she will be able to at least keep her match with Sabalenka fairly close.
Pick: Cirstea +5.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
Petra Kvitova (-178) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova (+140)
7 p.m. ET
Petra Kvitova defeated Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 7-6(5) to move on to the Miami quarterfinals. Kvitova won just 42% of her second-serve points, but did win 77% of her first serves and was only broken one time. The Czech won 53% of her second-serve returns, although she struggled on Gracheva's first serve, winning just 19% of her first-serve returns and only breaking twice.
Kvitova is now 14-5 on hard courts thisseason, with a 400-194 career-record on the surface. The Czech plays a powerful game, having won over 70% of her first serves in every match this week and controlling the baseline.
But, Kvitova's movement is mediocre and she can struggle in hot and humid conditions. Kvitova's rally tolerance is also mediocre, especially in recent years.
Ekaterina Alexandrova advanced to the quarterfinals of Miami when Bianca Andreescu pulled out injured, with the Russian winning 7-6(0), *0-2.
Alexandrova won just 30% of her second serves and hit seven double faults, although she did win 74% of her first serves, getting broken on three occasions. On return, Alexandrova won 37% of her first-serve returns and broke twice.
She improved her hard-court record to 7-5 in 2023. As a professional, the Russian is 198-116 on hard.
This should be a tight matchup between two big hitters, and return opportunities are likely to be sparse. While both players have a big serve, I trust Alexandrova's baseline game to hold up better.
Alexandrova's fitness and movement are both better than the Czech's and she should be more comfortable in Miami's conditions.
And while Kvitova often hits with more pace than Alexandrova, the Russian's rally tolerance is higher, which was crucial in her earlier Miami victory over world No. 9Belinda Bencic.
Pick: Alexandrova +2.5 games (-108 via FanDuel)
