WTA Miami has been so much fun to watch and the quarterfinals are set to begin.
I’ve found value on two fascinating quarterfinal matches — Rybakina vs Trevisan and Pegula vs Potapova.
Read on for my WTA Miami picks and predictions for March 28.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Miami Odds, Picks
Elena Rybakina (-1500) vs Martina Trevisan (+750)
2 p.m. ET
Elena Rybakina continues to excel, as she defeated Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-3 to reach the quarterfinals. Despite winning just 36% of her second-serve points, Rybakina won 82% of her first serves and was only broken once. On return, the Kazakh won 46% of her return points, including 69% on Mertens' second serve, breaking on three occasions.
Rybakina is now an astounding 19-4 on hard courts this year, with a 174-81 career-record on the surface.
Her game is based around her first serve, as she hits her targets with pace on her first delivery. However, the Kazakh also hits with controlled aggression from her forehand wing and can play with pace on her backhand, as well. But Rybakina's movement is suspect and her rally tolerance can dip at times.
Martina Trevisan continued her spectacular run in Miami, defeating an erratic Jelena Ostapenko 6-3, 6-3. Trevisan won just 58% of her first serves, but won 64% of her second serves, only getting broken twice. Trevisan won 64% of her second-serve returns and 52% of her return points overall, breaking five times.
She improved her record on hard courts as a professional to 55-63 and 5-8 this season. Trevisan has a heavy lefty forehand that she uses to dictate from the baseline, she moves well and has good variety. The Italian also has a high tennis IQ.
However, Trevisan's serve and forehand sit up in the court, her backhand is weak and she's underpowered.
Ostapenko's footwork was poor yesterday and she was completely erratic from the baseline, which took away her ability to rush Trevisan. But, Rybakina has much more control over groundstrokes than Ostapenko and shouldn't let the Italian off the hook.
Rybakina's powerful groundstrokes should rush Trevisan and push the Italian back. But, Trevisan's backhand should also break down under the pressure of the Kazakh's controlled aggression.
In addition, Trevisan shouldn't have nearly as much success on return, given Rybakina's elite serving.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Rybakina's overall Elo is 363.4 points higher than Trevisan's and her hard-court Elo is 404.2 points higher than the Italian's.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Jessica Pegula (-275) vs Anastasia Potapova (+220)
7:15 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula came back from 2-5* down in the second set to beat Magda Linette 6-1, 7-5 to advance in Miami. Pegula won 72% of her first serves, but only 48% of her second serves – getting broken three times. The American won 58% of her return points and broke Linette seven times.
She is 11-5 this season on hard courts, with an impressive 239-137 career– record on the surface. While Pegula doesn't do anything spectacular on court, her game is incredibly solid. The American gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and can hit accurately openings that she creates for herself. Pegula is a smart player and is also strong at the net.
But, Pegula can sometimes be a bit underpowered on court.
Anastasia Potapova continued her excellent form, taking down Qinwen Zheng 6-4, 7-6(4) to reach the quarterfinals. Potapova won 59% of her service points and was broken three times. On return, the Russian won 53% of her second-serve returns, allowing her to break Zheng's big serve four times.
Potapova has a 15-7 mark on hard courts in 2023 and is 112-82 as a professional on the surface. Potapova plays with aggressive attitude and controls the baseline, particularly with her forehand. In addition, the Russian moves well and has solid defensive skills. But, Potapova's accuracy on her groundstrokes can sometimes be suspect.
These two recently played in Indian Wells, with Pegula squeaking out a tight three-set victory. In that match, Potapova was able to overpower Pegula for long stretches of the match, even going up a break in the third.
Potapova is playing with confidence and is crushing the ball, particularly from her forehand wing. At the same time, Potapova has the foot speed and defensive abilities to extend rallies when Pegula tries to step up in the court.
And while Pegula is still winning at a good clip, she's been a bit too passive in her approach with her groundstrokes.
An in-form Potapova should be able to execute well enough in baseline exchanges to take a set here.
Pick: Potapova to win a set (-125 via BetMGM)
