It's been an incredible week of tennis in Monterrey so far and the exciting action continues with Thursday’s slate.
With trips to the quarterfinal round on the line, players will be battling hard to take their place in the final eight of the event.
And the good news for us is that value has presented itself in two matches.
Read on below for analysis of two plays to think about from Monterrey.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Mayar Sherif (+285) vs Qiang Wang (-400)
4 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Mayar Sherif picked up her first win of the season over Seone Mendez in the first round of Monterrey, with a tight three-set victory. Sherif was on a six-match losing streak overall, including an 0-5 start to the 2022 season.
In the victory over Mendez, Sherif won 51% of her return points and broke the Mendez serve eight times, generating 18 break points.
While Sherif's mobility and backhand weren't helping her cause, her heavy forehand did damage. However, it did seem like the altitude was getting to Sherif a bit as, despite winning, she seemed fatigued throughout the match.
Qiang Wang did well to come back from a set down to beat Dalma Galfi, 6-7(0), 6-1, 6-4 in the first round of Monterrey. Wang picked up where she left off last week in Guadalajara, when she made the semifinals before falling to Marie Bouzkova.
Wang played well in her victory over Galfi. serving 74% of her first serves in and winning 72% of her service points. She was only broken once all match and broke Galfi's serve five times.
Wang is a clean ball-striker clearly enjoying the higher-altitude conditions in Mexico. She does a great job of controlling the baseline and plays with good controlled aggression.
In this matchup, Wang has the clear edge for me. She hits a cleaner ball and is the fitter of the two players. Even early in the match, Sherif seemed tired Wednesday and her level dipped tremendously when Mendez was able to dictate from the baseline, exposing her movement.
In addition, Wang's forehand can hold her own against the Sherif forehand, and her backhand is better.
When looking at Elo ratings, Wang's overall Elo is 161.3 points better than Sherif. However, when we look at hard court-specific Elo ratings, Wang's Elo rating is 293.4 points better.
Wang is clearly the much better player and Sherif's close win over Mendez doesn't change that. Wang will win this match easily and cover the spread.
Pick: Wang -4.5 Games (-130 via PointsBet)
Marie Bouzkova (-188) vs Petra Martic (+140)
9:30 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Bouzkova is having an incredible time during the WTA's Mexico swing. Last week, Bouzkova came a set away from the Guadalajara title, losing in three sets to Sloane Stephens in the final. This week, Bouzkova started off Monterrey with a comeback victory over Sara Errani in three sets.
Bouzkova won 51% of her return points, with Errani able to win only 1 of 10 second-serve points. Bouzkova generated 23 break points and broke Errani on seven occasions during the match.
However, Bouzkova did seem a little fatigued from the long week in Guadalajara and Errani, with her ultra-consistent style of play, certainly didn't make the match easy on her. In addition, she did struggle to hit through Errani's defenses and seemed a bit confused as to how to play the Italian.
Petra Martic played well in her come-from-behind win over Madison Keys. The Croatian won 73% of her first-serve points, serving 69% of her first serves into play.
Martic played a tactically-sound match that didn't allow Keys to get into a rhythm. Martic attacked the net when given the opportunity, used the the full court to move Keys around and employed the backhand slice to keep the ball out of Keys' zone. The Croatian was also able to use her heavy forehand to dictate play at times.
And while Keys did get injured during the match, Martic showed me enough that I am confident in her going forward.
Bouzkova, who did make the Monterrey final in 2020, looked a little weary against Errani and, given the importance of consistent depth to her game, her rally tolerance was surprisingly low.
While I wasn't blown away by Martic's match with Keys, she was solid from the baseline and showed a high tennis IQ when she used her variety to keep Keys off balance.
I expect Martic to be right in this match and her game spread is the play.
Pick: Martic +2.5 Games (-112 via FanDuel)
