After an incredible week of tennis last week in Guadalajara, the WTA's Mexico Swing has moved to Monterrey.
The field is competitive and there are plenty of fascinating matches to watch this week in Monterrey. However, I've found two matches where the value sticks out.
Read on for analysis of two plays from Monterrey.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Kamilla Rakhimova (+178) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (-240)
2 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Kamilla Rakhimova has had a tough time as of late, losing three matches in a row dating back to the Australian Open. In her latest defeat, Rakhimova fell to Beatriz Haddad Maia 1-6, 3-6 in Doha.
It was a tough overall performance for Rakhimova. She won only 48% of her service points and was broken four times. On return, Rakhimova also struggled. The Russian won just 30% of her return points and didn't generate a single break point.
Rakhimova is a solid player, but she doesn't have any huge weapons and her game can break down at times. She does nothing special out there, and while she's able to control points and find openings for winners when given the opportunity, she's certainly no dominating force from the baseline.
Sara Sorribes Tormo was rolling in Guadalajara last week, but unexpectedly lost in the quarterfinals to Marie Bouzkova 4-6, 1-6.
Bouzkova played very well during the match, not letting Sorribes Tormo get away with short balls. Bouzkova forced the Spaniard to have to play lower-margin shots if Sorribes Tormo wanted to hit winners against her.
Sorribes Tormo served 75% of her first serves in, but she only won 43% of her first-serve points. Overall, Sorribes Tormo was broken six times during the match and had to face 12 break points. It was a nightmare for Sorribes Tormo on her own serve.
And, for a player with the return acumen that Sorribes Tormo possesses, only breaking Bouzkova's serve on two occasions was disappointing.
However, given that Sorribes Tormo didn't drop a set until the quarterfinals and how Bouzkova went on to be a set away from winning the title in Guadalajara against Sloane Stephens, I don't think that too much should be made of this loss.
This is an interesting matchup which should see Rakhimova attempt to control the baseline and hit through Sorribes Tormo, and the Spaniard counterpunching. These two actually just played in a Melbourne warmup event earlier this season, with Rakhimova winning a tight straight-sets affair.
This time, however, things will be different. In addition to her quarterfinal last week in Guadalajara, Sorribes Tormo has shown she can play well in altitude at other times, as well. She made the semifinals of Monterrey last season before losing to eventual champion Leylah Fernandez and won Guadalajara in 2021 over Eugenie Bouchard.
This is also Rakhimova's first match in Mexico this season and she might not be as used to the altitude as Sorribes Tormo is. Not that Monterrey's 1770-foot altitude is that high up in the air, but the ball flies more and it's certainly harder to catch your breath at that altitude. This isn't good news when you're going against a player with Sorribes Tormo's style.
Stylistically, this match sets up well for Sorribes Tormo. She's much more consistent than Rakhimova and will wear the Russian down from he baseline. Expect to see Rakhimova overhitting throughout this match. Sorribes Tormo's variety and net play are also superior to Rakhimova's.
In addition, when looking at Elo ratings, Sorribes Tormo's overall Elo is over 200 points better than Rakhimova's and her hard-court Elo is nearly 200 points better.
Don't be fooled by their previous head to head match; Sorribes Tormo should cover this spread.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -3.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
Magdalena Frech (+105) vs Camila Osorio (-135)
4:15 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Magdalena Frech struggled last week in Guadalajara, losing 0-6, 2-6 to Sorribes Tormo in her first match of the tournament.
It was a disastrous match for Frech. The Pole won just 37% of her service points and was broken six times in seven service games. Sorribes Tormo, on the other hand, was only broken once that match.
Frech is very fast around the court and has great consistency, but sometimes struggles when she has to be the more aggressive player during a match. When Sorribes Tormo forced her to step up in the court and try to hit winners, Frech was largely unable to do so. This is certainly a major limitation to her game.
Camila Osorio struggled physically in a 4-6, 1-6 loss to Anna Kalinskaya in the Guadalajara quarterfinals last week. While Osorio did well to Viktoriya Tomova and Hailey Baptiste, between her physical state and Kalinskaya's flatter groundstrokes that cut through the court, it was a tough day at the office for the Colombian.
Osorio only won 33% of her second serves and was broken five times. Osorio is normally a very strong returner, so only breaking the Kalinskaya serve once all match was not a typical performance from her.
When Osorio is playing well, she is so hard to beat. She's a consistent baseline player, but she also can step up in the court and take control of points when she's given the chance to do so. She can play aggressively, which complements her more typical counterpunching game.
This will be a war from the baseline, as neither player is going to serve huge. The match will come down to both staying consistent from the baseline, but also being able to play with controlled aggression when necessary.
I trust Osorio to do this better than Frech. The Pole really struggled to put away her groundstrokes against Sorribes Tormo and while Osorio doesn't quite have the consistency that the Spaniard has, she can still extend rallies and force Frech out of her comfort zone.
Osorio plays with controlled aggression at a higher level than Frech. Osorio's tennis IQ is very high, as she understands well when to hang in rallies and when to step up in the court.
Osorio is the play in this match.
Pick: Osorio ML (-135 via BetMGM)
