WTA Montreal is off to an amazing start and the level of tennis is through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Gauff vs Boulter and Sakkari vs Collins.
Read on for my WTA Montreal picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Montreal Picks
Coco Gauff (-700) vs Katie Boulter (+450)
11 a.m. ET
Coco Gauff won last week's Citi Open title, defeating Maria Sakkari 6-2, 6-3 in the final. Gauff won 72% of her first serves, although she did win just 43% of her second serves and was broken three times. The American also won 60% of her return points, breaking Sakkari's serve six times in eight return games.
Gauff has an incredible 20-5 record this season on hard, with two WTA titles on the surface in 2023. For her career, Gauff is 93-49 on hard courts. The American, who won over 70% of her first serves in 3-of-4 matches in Washingto, has a big first serve and dominates from the baseline behind her powerful, well-placed backhand. Gauff anticipates and moves around the court very well, showing great creativity on the court. She has excellent variety and strong net play.
The problem for the American is her forehand can sometimes go haywire.
Katie Boulter qualified for Montreal, then beat Rebecca Marino 6-3, 6-1 in the opening round. Despite winning just 47% of her second serves, Boulter won 91% of her first serves and wasn't broken. In addition, the Brit won 52% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Boulter is now 18-9 on hard courts this year on hard. As a professional, Boulter has a solid 201-132 record on the surface. Boulter has a fairly powerful first serve that she she uses to get ahead in her service game. Boulter's baseline game is defined by her forehand, which she uses to dictate play. However, Boulter is not the best mover, she doesn't have great variety and her backhand can break down under pressure. The Brit has also gone six-straight matches without winning over 50% of her second serves.
Gauff has an excellent return and should be able to neutralize Boulter's first serve. And Gauff should be able to effectively attack the Brit's second serve.
Her forehand held up surprisingly well in Washington. She should be able to hang in forehand-to-forehand rallies against Boulter before eventually getting the ball onto her backhand, where she can overwhelm Boulter's backhand wing.
In addition, Gauff is a better mover and more crafty compared to Boulter, both in terms of variety and net game.
Finally, Gauff's overall Elo rating is 273.4 points higher than Boulter's and her hard-court Elo is 320.2 points above the American's.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-115 via BetMGM)
Maria Sakkari (-195) vs Danielle Collins (+155)
7 p.m. ET
Maria Sakkari made the Washington final last week, but fell 2-6, 3-6 to Coco Gauff. Sakkari won just 40% of her service points, getting broken on six occasions. The Greek also won 57% of her second-serve returns, breaking Gauff's serve three times.
Sakkari has an impressive 15-7 record this season on hard, with a 233-156 career-record on the surface. The Greek hits her spots on serve and has a big, heavy forehand with good placement. Sakkari positions herself well on court and tries to be the aggressor, although her movement and counterpunching skills are strong. However, the Greek can sometimes be rushed on her forehand and her backhand can become erratic.
Danielle Collins qualified for Montreal and defeated Elina Svitolina 6-2, 6-2 in the first round. Collins won 69% of her service points and wasn't broken. The American also won 45% of her return points, including 65% on Svitolina's second serve, breaking on four occasions.
Collins is just 12-10 in 2023 on hard, but last year's Australian Open finalist has a strong 152-93 professional-record on the surface. Collins has a big first serve and plays with aggression from the ground. Her backhand is particularly strong, as she can push opponents around. Collins has re-found the control over her groundstrokes in Montreal, although her forehand is always a bit of a liability.
Sakkari played well last week, but Gauff showcased how an aggressive backhand can give the Greek issues. Collins should dominate in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges, with Sakkari leaking errors and leaving balls short.
Collins' power should also allow her to rush Sakkari from both wings, which should help to blunt Sakkari's strong forehand and force the Greek to scramble around more often than she would like.
And the American, who has won over 70% of her 1st serves in all of her Montreal matches so far, should mitigate Sakkari's return opportunities with her first serve.
Pick: Collins +3.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
