Despite some rain troubles, WTA Rome continues to excite and Tuesday's action surely won’t disappoint!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Badosa vs Muchova and Haddad Maia vs Kalinina.
Read on for my WTA Rome picks and expert betting predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Rome Odds, Picks
Paula Badosa (-215) vs Karolina Muchova (+174)
9 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa comfortably defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-4, 6-2 to reach the round of 16. Badosa won just 51% of her service points and was broken four times. However, the Spaniard was all over Kostyuk's serve, winning 58% of her return points and breaking seven times.
Badosa is a good clay-courter, with a 160-83 career-record on the surface. The Spaniard hits her spots on serve and plays with excellent depth and control over her groundstrokes. Badosa is particularly potent from her forehand wing, effectively hitting into smalls targets. In addition, Badosa's backhand is solid, she has a high tennis IQ and understands how to construct points. And while she can be underpowered against the elite, big ball strikers on tour, the heavy clay in Rome helps to neutralize this disadvantage.
Karolina Muchova beat Camila Giorgi 7-6(4), 6-2 to set up this showdown with Badosa. Muchova won 70% of her first-serve points, although she was broken on three occasions. The Czech did win 49% of her return points, including 62% of her second-serve returns, breaking five times.
Muchova has a strong 104-54 record on clay as a professional. The Czech likes to play attacking tennis, with a big first serve and aggressive groundstrokes. Muchova has excellent variety, whether it be her backhand slice or touch shots, and she hits cutting volleys. But, Muchova's rally tolerance comes and goes, her backhand can be shaky at times and the slow Rome surface zaps some of the bite out of her game.
Slow, water-logged clay does not suit Muchova's game well. Her slices sit up more, it is harder for her to play her aggressive style and she gets less out of her serve.
Badosa's ability to absorb pace and consistent depth from the baseline should further neutralize Muchova's attacking game and extend rallies, testing the Czech's consistency.
And, the Spaniard has the tennis IQ and placement on her groundstrokes to pepper Muchova's weaker backhand wing.
Pick: Badosa -3.5 games (-114 via FanDuel)
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-144) vs Anhelina Kalinina (+118)
1 p.m. ET
Beatriz Haddad Maia fought past Camila Osorio 6-3, 6-3 to set up this quarterfinal showdown. Haddad Maia put together a strong serving performance, winning 73% of her service points and facing just one break point, which she saved. The Brazilian also won 65% of her second-serve returns and broke on three occasions.
Haddad Maia now has an impressive 202-101 on clay for her career. The Brazilian has a big lefty serve and a heavy forehand that dominates from the baseline. Haddad Maia can even hit into targets from her backhand side and she gets consistent depth from both wings. She also has good court awareness and understands when the right time to come to net is, and she's effective moving forward.
Anhelina Kalinina came back to defeat Madison Keys 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the round of 16. Kalinina struggled on serve, winning just 54% of her service points and getting broken on five occasions. However, the Ukrainian won 50% of her return points on Keys' big serve, including 62% of her second-serve returns, breaking six times.
Kalinina has an incredible 168-67 record on clay as a professional. When she's playing well, Kalinina spreads the court well and is very consistent, hitting with good precision, even if she lacks power. This season, though, the Ukrainian has stretches where she loses patience and makes poor decisions. Kalinina's serve is also not strong and she is constantly under fire during her service games.
Haddad Maia has the rally tolerance and depth to match Kalinina during baseline exchanges. But, the Brazilian also has the firepower to hit through Kalinina from the baseline. Utilizing her heavy, powerful forehand, Haddad Maia should be able to dictate from the baseline, moving the Ukrainian around before creating an opening to finish off the point.
Haddad Maia's ability to create angles should be crucial in her point construction during this match, as she should be able to drag Kalinina off the court.
Her strong net play should be important, as well. The Brazilian, with her high tennis IQ, should know when to move forward and cut off some of Kalinina's floating, defensive shots at the net.
Pick: Haddad Maia ML (-144 via FanDuel)
