WTA Rome continues to produce incredible tennis and the action continues on Friday!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups — Muchova vs Trevisan and Rybakina vs Paolini.
Read on for my WTA Rome picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Rome Odds, Picks
Karolina Muchova (-260) vs Martina Trevisan (+200)
6:30 a.m. ET
Karolina Muchova started off Rome with a 6-4, 7-5 victory over Kamilla Rakhimova. Muchova won just 55% of her service points, getting broken five times. The Czech won 76% of her second-serve returns and 57% of her return points overall, breaking on seven occasions.
Muchova has a strong 102-54 career-record on clay. The Czech has a well-placed first serve and a powerful forehand behind the serve. Muchova's variety is fantastic, particularly her backhand slice, and she has great court awareness, understanding the right times to move forward and hit beautiful volleys.
With that said, the slow conditions minimize a lot of Muchova's strengths, making it more difficult to employ her slices and move forward. Muchova's backhand is also prone to breaking down.
Martina Trevisan last played in Madrid, where she made the round of 16 but fell 3-6, 6-2, 3-6 to Jessica Pegula. Trevisan won just 49% of her service points, getting broken on seven occasions. But, the Italian won 47% of her return points and broke Pegula's serve six times.
Trevisan is an expert on the dirt, with a 22-7105 record on clay as a professional. Her game is centered around her heavy, lefty forehand that she uses to dictate play and hit into precise targets. The Italian absorbs pace well from the baseline and counterpunches effectively, with great anticipation for where her opponents' shots are going.
Her serve can sit up in the box, but if she's able to neutralize the point from there, it's hard to attack her from the baseline given her consistent depth.
In these slow, high-bouncing conditions, Muchova should struggle to take command of rallies. On the other hand, Trevisan should be able to drag Muchova around the court with her heavy forehand and go cross-court into Muchova's weaker backhand wing with a lot of success.
In addition, Muchova should find it difficult to move forward. When she does, Trevisan has pinpoint passing shots.
Pick: Trevisan to win a set (-130 via PointsBet)
Elena Rybakina (-600) vs Jasmine Paolini (+410)
2:3o p.m. ET
Elena Rybakina struggled in her most recent tournament in Madrid, falling in her opening match 5-7, 6-4, 2-6 to Anna Kalinskaya. Rybakina hit 10 aces and won 73% of her first-serve points, but only won 44% of her second serves, getting broken four times. The Kazakh won just 35% of her return points, breaking twice.
While clay is her weakest surface, Rybakina does have a strong 68-35 career-record on the dirt. Rybakina has a huge first serve and powerful groundstrokes, especially her forehand. However, the slow Rome conditions can at least partially neutralize these elements of the Kazakh's game. And, as was the case against Kalinskaya, Rybakina's rally tolerance can come and go.
Jasmine Paolini got her Rome campaign off to a strong start, beating Xinyu Wang 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-2. Paolini won 67% of her service points, getting broken just twice in the three sets. The Italian also won 41% of her return points, generating 13 break points and breaking five times.
Paolini is 188-114 on clay as a professional, showcasing that she can play on the dirt. The Italian is very quick around the court, absorbs pace well and counterpunches effectively. Paolini's consistency and depth are both strong attributes to her game and while she lacks some power, she's able to hit with power into openings that present themselves, particularly with her forehand.
Rybakina retired from her match against Beatriz Haddad Maia in Stuttgart and looked out of form against Kalinskaya. Her consistency is lacking at the moment, which plays right into Paolini's hands.
Paolini should use her speed and the slow conditions to her benefit, extending rallies and forcing the Kazakh to play extra balls. A frustrated Rybakina, already struggling with her rally tolerance, should start pressing on her groundstrokes.
And, given how Rybakina looked on return against Kalinskaya, it's hard to trust that aspect of her game at the moment.
Paolini will also have the crowd on her side, providing an extra dimension of this match that is working against Rybakina.
Pick: Paolini +5.5 games (-118 via FanDuel)
