WTA Rome is underway and the tennis has been incredible.
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Osorio vs. Gracheva and Martincova vs. Cornet — so let's get right to the breakdowns.
Read on for my WTA Rome picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Rome Odds, Picks
Camila Osorio (-134) vs Varvara Gracheva (+110)
6:30 a.m. ET
Camila Osorio qualified for Rome by taking out Oceane Dodin 6-3, 6-4 in the final qualifying round. Osorio won 56% of her service points, but despite her mediocre serving numbers, she was only broken three times. Additionally, the Colombian won 53% of her return points, taking advantage of 11 double faults and breaking five times.
Osorio has an astounding 90-36 record on clay in her career. The Colombian's game is tailor-made for the dirt with her quick foot speed, anticipation and consistency. Osorio doesn't have much power, but can effectively construct points, particularly with her heavy forehand.
In qualifying alone (two matches), the Colombian generated 32 break points and broke 11 times.
Varvara Gracheva lost her opening match in Madrid, falling 7-6(2), 3-6, 4-6 to Xiyu Wang. While Gracheva won 68% of her first serves, she won just 35% of her second serves and was broken five times. On return, the Russian won 52% of her second-serve returns, but only 21% of her first-serve returns, breaking three times across three sets.
Gracheva has an impressive 121-60 clay-court record as a professional. The Russian doesn't do anything spectacular, but hits her spots on serve and can dictate with her forehand at times. But, Gracheva's backhand is prone to breaking down, her movement is nothing special and she battles inconsistency.
Osorio has a couple matches in Rome under her belt, giving her a chance to hone her game. Meanwhile, this is Gracheva's first match this season on "normal" red clay.
While Gracheva has the power advantage, but between Osorio's movement and the slow conditions, the Colombian should be able to neutralize the Gracheva's power and get the ball onto her backhand wing.
Osorio is the more consistent player and should have the upper-hand in the long rallies these conditions require. In a lengthy match, I also trust Osorio's fitness more than Gracheva's.
Finally, while Osorio's overall Elo rating is just 16.9 points above the Russian's, her clay-court Elo is 119.5 points higher.
Pick: Osorio Moneyline (-134 via FanDuel)
Tereza Martincova (-125) vs Alize Cornet (+100)
8:15 a.m. ET
Tereza Martincova qualified for Rome by defeating Ana Konjuh 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 in the final qualifying round. Martincova won 60% of her service points and was broken on four occasions. However, while the Czech won just 40% of her return points, buoyed by eight Konjuh double faults, she won 65% of her second-serve returns, breaking four times.
Martincova is a solid clay courter with a 159-128 career-record on the dirt. The Czech is consistent from the baseline and forces her opponents to work hard to hit through her. Martincova is crafty, spreads the court well and utilizes excellent variety to throw her opponents out of whack. Martincova doesn't have overwhelming power, but she out-maneuvers her opposition.
Alize Cornet lost in a disastrous opening match in the Reus Challenger last week, losing 0-6, 2-6 to Leyre Romero Gormaz. Cornet won just 40% of her service points, including 44% of her first-serve points, and was broken six times. On return, the Frenchwoman won just 31% of her return points, and only managed to break serve once.
While Cornet is 215-141 on clay as a professional, she is just 2-3 this season. More disturbing, this season, the Frenchwoman is just 4-9 and has failed to win consecutive matches in the same tournament. At her best, Cornet is very fit, gets consistent depth and can control the baseline with her backhand.
However, this season, Cornet's forehand has become an even bigger liability, her backhand hasn't been able to compensate and she's lacking rally tolerance. There's no way to trust her right now.
This is especially the case given that Martincova's game is perfect to give Cornet fits. The Czech should be able to blunt Cornet's power on her backhand and is crafty enough to maneuver the ball onto Cornet's forehand wing until the Frenchwoman cracks.
Martincova, like Romero Gormaz, should be all over Cornet's serve. And, given Cornet's return performance against the Spaniard, it's hard to trust her on return.
Pick: Martincova Moneyline (-125 via BetMGM)
