WTA Istanbul and Stuttgart have featured incredible tennis this week. Additionally, there's also been incredible value floating around.
I’ve found one spot in each tournament's slate of matches where value has presented itself, including a Stuttgart match featuring Spanish star Paula Badosa.
Read on for two plays to think about from Friday's WTA matches.
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Paula Badosa (-130) vs. Ons Jabeur (+102)
6:30 a.m. ET, WTA Stuttgart
Badosa survived a scare in her Stuttgart opener against Elena Rybakina. However, Badosa was able to eventually win 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(4).
She did a great job neutralizing the Rybakina serve, despite the quick indoor clay conditions. Rybakina won just 54% of her service points, getting broken six times in the match. Badosa is so tough to break down from the baseline and understands point construction at a high level.
Badosa is quite good on clay, winning over 65% of her career matches on the dirt. She is a great mover and does an excellent job of holding firm on the baseline. Badosa's consistent depth is superb and she can place the ball well around the court, making her tough to break down.
Ons Jabeur has continued her good form in Stuttgart this week. Jabeur beat Daria Kasatkina 6-3, 6-3 to advance to this quarterfinal showdown with Badosa.
Jabeur clobbered Kasatkina's serve, winning 54% of her return points and breaking six times. The Tunisian did a great job of forcing Kasatkina on the defensive and she dictated play from the baseline. Jabeur dragged Kasatkina around the court and was steady enough that she didn't give away too many free points with unforced errors.
Another important aspect of Jabeur's game is her variety. She can keep players off-balance with her angles, touch shots, and spins. Jabeur likes the faster courts in Stuttgart, as she can still play her attacking brand of tennis.
Badosa won't let Jabeur control the baseline and push her around in the manner that Jabeur did to Kasatkina. And while Jabeur was able to rush Marketa Vondrousova in her the first round due to the quicker conditions, Badosa is more versatile and can blunt Jabeur's power.
She is going to frustrate Jabeur with her consistent depth and not give her many opportunities to attack and be on the front foot, which is when she's best with her variety, as well.
In terms of Elo Ratings, it's important to note that Badosa's overall and clay-court Elo are higher than Jabeur's.
Pick: Badosa ML (-130 via PointsBet)
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-250) vs. Anastasia Potapova (+190)
7:30 a.m. ET, WTA Istanbul
Anastasia Potapova has had a great week in Istanbul. Potapova qualified and has dropped only one set this week. Most recently, she beat Petra Martic 6-2, 6-3.
Potapova served very well in the match, winning 74% of her service points while not getting broken. The Russian also did a great job of taking advantage of Martic's second serves, winning 64% of her second-serve points. Potapova has been steady from the baseline this week and tough to hit through.
She is certainly benefitting from playing on the slow Istanbul courts. Potapova is a very good mover and is very consistent. Her forehand is fairly heavy and, when Potapova is at her best, her depth is also outstanding. In addition, Potapova is a good clay-court player, with a 43-23 career-record on the dirt.
Sara Sorribes Tormo has had a strong start to the clay-court season. After two wins last week in Billie Jean King Cup, Sorribes Tormo hasn't dropped a set in Istanbul this week. In her latest win, she beat Varvara Gracheva 6-2, 6-1.
Against Gracheva, Sorribes Tormo dominated on return. She won 51% of her first-serve return points and 78% of her second-serve return points, breaking Gracheva's serve six times in eight service games. Sorribes Tormo is a menace during rallies, forcing opponents to go for high-risk shots to hit past her.
Sorribes Tormo is very solid from the baseline and moves extremely well, making her nearly impossible to hit through in these slow conditions. The Spaniard also has a knifing backhand slice and understands the right times to come to the net to finish off points.
Potapova can't out-rally Sorribes Tormo, she doesn't have the power to hit through her from the baseline and her serve isn't good enough to win her many free points. In addition, Sorribes Tormo has better court craft and a more dynamic game, giving her many ways to finish off points compared to Potapova's less creative game.
In terms of Elo Ratings, Sorribes Tormo's overall and clay Elo are over 125 points better than Potapova's.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
