WTA Stuttgart is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Tuesday.
I’ve found value on two of the April 18 matches — Badosa vs Kasatkina and Ostapenko vs Raducanu.
Read on for my WTA Stuttgart picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Stuttgart Odds, Picks
Paula Badosa (-154) vs Daria Kasatkina (+116)
7:30 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa last played in Charleston, where she fell 4-6, 6-7(6) to Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. Badosa won just 57% of her first serves in that match, but was only broken twice. On return, while the Spaniard won just 20% of her first-serve returns and broke once, she won 54% of her second-serve returns.
Badosa has a strong 153-81 record on clay for her career, and has adjusted to the quicker, more slippery conditions in Stuttgart well, making the semifinals last season. She hits her spots on serve and plays solid baseline tennis from both wings. Badosa tries to be aggressive with her forehand, hits with consistent depth and has a high tennis IQ.
Daria Kasatkina made the semifinals of Charleston, losing 5-7, 5-7 to Ons Jabeur. Kasatkina won 58% of her second-serve returns, generating 14 break points and breaking on five occasions. However, the Russian won just 45% of her service points, getting broken seven times.
Kasatkina is an incredible 114-46 on clay as a professional, although she went out in her second match in Stuttgart last season. The Russian's game is centered around her incredible placement, speed and tennis IQ. Kasatkina's particularly potent when utilizing her heavy forehand. With that said, Kasatkina's serve is poor and she lacks a lot of power with her groundstrokes, which is a problem given the quicker conditions in Stuttgart.
Badosa has the stronger serve compared to Kasatkina and should the Russian's weak serves on return, taking advantage of the faster conditions to play first-strike tennis when returning.
The Spaniard also has more power from the baseline and her groundstrokes don't sit up as much compared to Kasatkina's. This is especially important given Stuttgart's conditions.
Kasatkina does better on slow clay, where she can build points and utilize her variety. In quicker court conditions, Badosa should be able to rush her and take better-advantage of Kasatkina's loopy forehand. Stuttgart often favors players with more power for this reason.
Pick: Badosa -1.5 games (-118 via FanDuel)
Jelena Ostapenko (-135) vs Emma Raducanu (+106)
12:30 p.m. ET
Jelena Ostapenko last played in Miami, where she lost in a disappointing round-of-16 appearance, 3-6, 3-6, to Martina Trevisan. Ostapenko won just 48% of her service points, getting broken five times. On return, the Latvian won just 36% of her second-serve returns, breaking just twice.
A former Roland Garros champion, Ostapenko has an impressive 97-44 career-record on clay. The Latvian can completely overwhelm her opponents with pace from both wings. The clay gives Ostapenko a little extra time to set up and the ball can sit up in her strike zone, and she still has the power to hit through the conditions.
The fast Stuttgart conditions suit Ostapenko's game well, as she's comfortable moving on clay, but the slippery clay in Stuttgart gives her groundstrokes even more punch. Ostapenko's serve can sit up, however.
Emma Raducanu lost 3-6, 6-3, 2-6 to Bianca Andreescu in her most recent match in Miami. While Raducanu won 70% of her second-serve points, she won just 59% of her first serves, facing 11 break points and getting broken three times. On return, the Brit won 34% of her return points, generating 12 break points but only breaking once.
Raducanu has played just 11 clay matches as a professional, going 6-5. Raducanu did reach the quarterfinals of Stuttgart in 2022, but she played weaker competition to reach the final eight. Raducanu is precise when hitting her groundstrokes and is a cerebral player. The Brit also hits a clean ball and moves well. However, Raducanu's serve and groundstrokes can lack some punch and she goes through patches of rough play.
The quick conditions suit Ostapenko's powerful game more. She should be able to dictate play from the baseline and bully Raducanu around the court, utilizing the extra time she gets on the dirt to set up her aggressive groundstrokes (footwork was an issue in Miami).
And, given that Raducanu has such limited experience on clay, I don't trust her movement on the dirt. She should struggle to track down the Latvian's powerful groundstrokes and lack the experience of how to properly reset clay-court points.
Pick: Ostapenko ML (-135 via PointsBet)
