We are onto the quarterfinals of WTA Stuttgart and the level of tennis is outstanding.
I’ve found value on two of the April 21 matches — Sabalenka vs Badosa and Potapova vs Garcia.
Read on for my WTA Stuttgart picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Stuttgart Odds, Picks
Aryna Sabalenka (-215) vs Paula Badosa (+165)
6:05 a.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka got her Stuttgart campaign off to a hot start, defeating Barbora Krejcikova 6-2, 6-3. Sabalenka hit 10 aces and won 88% of her first-serve points. On return, the Belarusian won 81% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Sabalenka is not known for her clay-court craft, but she does have a solid 55-40 career-record on the dirt. The quicker, slippery conditions in Stuttgart play to Sabalenka's strengths, as they emphasize her huge serve and powerful groundstrokes. The Belarusian often overwhelms her opponents with pace. However, Sabalenka isn't particularly comfortable moving on clay and her rally tolerance is not a strength of her game.
Paula Badosa continues to excel in Stuttgart, beating Cristina Bucsa 6-1, 6-2 in the round of 1. Badosa won 67% of her service points, including 79% on her first serves. The Spaniard also won 76% of her second-serve returns and 56% of her return points overall, breaking five times.
Badosa is on fire, having dropped just five games in her first two Stuttgart matches. On clay, the Spaniard has an impressive 155-81 record as a professional. Badosa hits her spots on serve and does a great job of holding onto the baseline. She absorbs pace at a high level and counter-punches effectively.
This is only Sabalenka's second match on clay for the season, while it's Badosa's seventh. Over the course of their careers, Badosa has much more experience on the dirt and she's had more success on the surface. Badosa's movement, variety and ability to improvise – all so important to clay-court tennis – are on a higher level than Sabalenka's.
Sabalenka's raw power on serve and groundstrokes is much more potent than Badosa's. But, Badosa is an excellent defender and turning defense into offense is a strength of the Spaniard's game.
Expect Badosa to absorb Sabalenka's pace and extend rallies, frustrating the Belarusian and leading her to overhit on her groundstrokes.
Pick: Badosa +3.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Anastasia Potapova (-128) vs Caroline Garcia (-104)
9:30 a.m. ET
Caroline Garcia beat Tatjana Maria 7-6(5), 6-4 to advance in Stuttgart. Garcia won 69% of her first-serve points but only won 45% of her second serves, getting broken three times. On return, the Frenchwoman was all over Maria's second serve, winning 68% of her second-serve returns and breaking on four occasions.
Garcia is now a strong 125-83 on clay for her career. But, today's performance wasn't convincing. Garcia's decision-making on court was very questionable, as she often went for way too much on her groundstrokes and played with very low margins. When the Frenchwoman is locked in she has a huge first serve, excellent net play and overpowering groundstrokes.
However, given how hyper-aggressive Garcia plays, when she's just a little off her game can crumble into a heap of unforced errors.
Anastasia Potapova upset Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-3 to reach the Stuttgart quarterfinals. Potapova won 82% of her first-serve points and wasn't broken all match. The Russian also won 69% of her second-serve returns, generating 13 break points and breaking three times.
Potapova improved her professional-record on clay to an impressive 59-30. She is learning to better control her power, which makes her a very dangerous player. The Russian is hitting heavy groundstrokes with pace into precise targets with increasing frequency. She moves well, can vary play effectively and showcased against Gauff how potent she can be on serve. Potapova is gaining confidence in her game with every match.
She is playing with the better controlled aggression of the two. The Russian is also willing to dig in more on return and make her opponents work, whereas Garcia goes full-throttle on almost every return, with varying success.
I also trust Potapova's movement, defense and counter-punching more than the Frenchwoman's right now.
Pick: Potapova ML (-128 via FanDuel)
