WTA Stuttgart is set to begin and given the incredible player field, the quality of tennis should be through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of the April 17 matches — Zheng vs Parks and Bucsa vs Korpatsch.
Read on for my WTA Stuttgart picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Stuttgart Odds, Picks
Qinwen Zheng (-325) vs Alycia Parks (+240)
6 a.m. ET
Qinwen Zheng last played in Miami, where she fell 4-6, 6-7(4) in the round of 16 to Anastasia Potapova. While Zheng hit nine aces and won 71% of her first-serve points, she only won 47% of her second serves – getting broken four times. Zheng did win 55% of her return points and broke three times.
She is 54-17 on the dirt, which includes a clay $125k title in Valencia last season. Zheng has a big first serve and is aggressive from the baseline, but she reins her game in fairly well on the dirt. She understands how to move on clay, but the quick, slippery surface also accentuates her power game. Stuttgart provides good conditions for Zheng.
Alycia Parks is into the main draw as a lucky loser, having lost in the final qualifying round, 2-6, 4-6, to Tamara Korpatsch. While Parks won 72% of her first serves, she won just 17% of her second serves, hit 10 double faults and was broken five times. And though Korpatsch won just 42% of her second serves despite not having a big first serve, she won 82% of her first-serve points. The German was broken just twice.
Parks is now just 51-57 on clay as a professional. In addition, the American has lost seven of her past nine overall matches. Parks has a huge first serve and plays aggressively from the baseline. She has had incredible results on indoor hard over the past year, but indoor clay is a different animal.
Zheng's game is more reliable at the moment. Her second serve is steadier and she has better control of her groundstrokes. She should be able to outlast Parks in rallies.
Despite the clay being quicker in Stuttgart, comfort moving on the surface is very important and Zheng has the leg-up in this regard.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Zheng's overall Elo is 218 points higher than Parks' and her clay-court Elo is 312.9 points above the American's.
Pick: Zheng 2-0 (-136 via PointsBet)
Cristina Busca (-155) vs Tamara Korpatsch (+122)
9:30 a.m. ET
Cristina Busca won a physical battle against Katie Volynets to qualify for Stuttgart, defeating the American 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(2). Busca won just 50% of her service points, having to face 19 break points and getting broken on eight occasions. But, she won 64% of her second-serve returns points and generated 16 break points, breaking nine times.
Bucsa is a strong 128-86 on clay for her career, with a 15-12 record in 2022. The Spaniard doesn't do anything spectacular on court, but she hits with consistent depth from the baseline. Bucsa's forehand is a bit more reliable than her backhand, however. And while Bucsa can hit with decent power into openings, she is often underpowered on court.
As noted earlier, Korpatsch took down Alycia Parks 6-2, 6-4. She won 7-of-9 service games on the back of her first serve, while her second serve sat up in the box a bit too much. And while Parks' first serve is tough to handle, Bucsa's first delivery is much more manageable. The German already showcased that she has no problem handling second-serve returns, winning 83% of Parks' second serves.
Korpatsch is a strong clay courter, with a 231-114 career-record on clay and a 32-11 record last year. The German has excellent rally tolerance and placement. Korpatsch moves well on the dirt and has a high clay tennis IQ, understanding how to construct points on the surface. In addition, Korpatsch's variety is excellent, although she can lack power at times.
This should be a baseline battle between two strong clay court players. Korpatsch has the advantage of playing in front of her home crowd and she has the more dynamic game.
The German's variety and creativity on court are both better than Bucsa's, and she should be able to match the Spaniard's consistency while out-maneuvering her in rallies..
Pick: Korpatsch +2.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
