The US Open has come to a close, with Iga Swiatek winning the title, but the WTA Tour rolls on.
There are two hard-court tournaments, Chennai and Portoroz, with both presenting value for us exploit!
Read below for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Katie Swan (-135) vs. Arianne Hartono(+105)
7:30 a.m. ET, Chennai
Katie Swan hasn't played in over a month, but she won the hard-court $60k event in Lexington in her last tournament. Swan had to beat tough competitors such as Katrina Scott and Jodie Burrage to lift the winner's trophy. The victory in Lexington was the biggest title in Swan's career.
Swan is now 14-5 this season on hard courts and 128-64 overall on hard in her career. Swan does not have overwhelming power, but she is solid from both baseline wings.. Her game is also not completely powerless, as she can effectively hit into openings when given the opportunity to do so.
Arianne Hartono lost to Clara Burel in the second round of qualifying at the US Open. Hartono has struggled on hard courts this year, going 7-9. She has failed to win consecutive matches on hard courts since Australian Open qualifying in January.
On the whole, Hartono has struggled in 2022, even off of hard courts. She's 16-20 overall on the season and hasn't made a single semifinal. Hartono tries to play power tennis from the baseline. She hits big from both wings, especially with her forehand, and attempts to dictate play when she can.
Hartono will look to be the aggressor in this matchup and force Swan on the defensive. However, Swan is consistent with her groundstrokes and will extend rallies, forcing Hartono to lower her margins and go for more than she wants to. The unforced errors should then flow from Hartono's racquet.
Swan has been the stronger player on hard courts this season and is finally finding her confidence to play more aggressive tennis from the baseline. While she is not a big hitter, I do trust Swan to be effective when putting away short balls and to be the more solid player from the ground overall.
Pick: Swan ML (-135 via BetMGM)
Alize Cornet (-190) vs. Kaja Juvan (+145)
11:15 a.m. ET, Portoroz
Alize Cornet reached the semifinals in Cleveland (on hard courts) and then made the third round of the US Open in her two most recent events. While the Frenchwoman is 12-14 on hard courts in 2022, she made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and went a solid 7-5 during the summer hard-court swing.
Cornet plays with controlled aggression on her backhand, which is Cornet's best shot. Her movement is also vital to her game, as she is quick around the court and has excellent endurance. Opponents struggle to outlast Cornet in longer matches. And while Cornet's forehand can be a bit loopy, she is able to get consistent depth from that wing and it's not a major weakness.
Kaja Juvan has struggled mightily in recent weeks. Juvan is 0-4 since reaching the third round of Wimbledon, including an 0-3 record during the summer hard-court swing. The Slovenian lost 4-6, 4-6 to Cristina Bucsa in the first round of the US Open, winning only 33% of her return points and hitting 24 winners versus 34 unforced errors in the match.
Juvan has now lost her last five matches overall on hard courts. While she is still 12-10 in 2022 and 63-48 as a professional on hard, Juvan has totally lost her game recently. Juvan's confidence is down, her rally tolerance has declined and she's not hitting with the controlled aggression she once did.
While Juvan is the home player and will have the crowd on her side, she is not playing good tennis at the moment. Cornet is the more consistent of the two and she has the best shot on the court in her backhand.
When looking at Elo Ratings, Cornet's overall Elo is 101 points better than Juvan's. Her hard-court Elo is 102.3 points higher than the Slovenian's.
Pick: Cornet -3.5 games (-105 via BetMGM)
