The WTA Tour continues on the European red clay with exciting tennis this week in Warsaw.
I’ve found betting value for two of Tuesday's matches, including Jasmine Paolini vs. Danka Kovinic and Anna Bondar (-330) vs. Kristina Mladenovic.
Check out my best bets and full breakdowns for both matches below.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Jasmine Paolini (-150) vs. Danka Kovinic(+115)
6:15 a.m. ET
Jasmine Paolini was one set away from the clay-court Palermo final last week but fell in three sets to Lucia Bronzetti, 6-0, 3-6, 3-6. Paolini won only 59% of her first-serve points in that match and was broken six times in the match. On return, after breaking Bronzetti's serve three times in the opening set, Paolini only broke one time in the second and third sets combined.
Paolini is a good clay-court player, with a 180-108 career record on the dirt. However, the Italian has struggled on clay this year, going just 5-7.
Paolini's movement is outstanding and she counterpunches well, but she doesn't have the best reach on the edges of the court.
In addition, Paolini can struggle with her rally tolerance when trying to play with power and looked off toward the end of her match with Bronzetti.
Danka Kovinic hasn't played since Eastbourne but will be excited to get back on clay. Kovinic is 254-125 as a professional on clay and an impressive 11-4 in 2022. Kovinic has already won the ITF $100K event in Wiesbaden and made the third round of Roland Garros, where she put up a good showing in her defeat to Iga Swiatek.
Kovinic hits with controlled aggression from the baseline and gets good depth on her groundstrokes. She can punish opponents who leave the ball short, especially with her forehand, while not giving up many short balls herself.
Also, while Kovinic is not the best mover on tour, she can defend effectively on clay when forced to do so.
This is a tight matchup between two competent clay-court players. While Paolini is the better defender of the two, she can become erratic when trying to be aggressive. Paolini's serve is also weaker, as she's won under 65% of her first-serve points in five of her last six matches. Kovinic will take advantage of this.
Kovinic has had a great clay season and will dominate from the baseline in this match. Her forehand is the best shot on the court and will be vital to gaining the upper hand in rallies.
Pick: Kovinic ML (+115 via BetMGM)
Anna Bondar (-330) vs. Kristina Mladenovic (+230)
7 a.m. ET
Anna Bondar made the quarterfinals of Palermo last week but lost 2-6, 3-6 to Sara Sorribes Tormo.
Bondar won only 52% of her service points and 29% of her return points in that match, as she was bamboozled by Sorribes Tormo's incredible foot speed and counterpunching ability.
However, to reach the quarterfinals, Bondar defeated both Clara Burel and Panna Udvardy in straight sets. Bondar is strong on clay, with a 242-106 record in her career, and going 21-9 record this season. The Hungarian is solid from the baseline and uses her forehand to take control when the opportunity presents itself.
Kristina Mladenovic will be looking to break a six-match losing streak in Warsaw, having lost 3-6, 5-7 to World No. 286 Sada Nahimana in the Olomouc ITF $60K event last week.
Mladenovic's serve was a disaster against Nahimana, getting broken seven times. Overall, during her losing streak, Mladenovic has been broken 37 times.
Mladenovic does have a 112-95 career record on clay but has only gone 7-10 this season on the dirt. Mladenovic's net game is strong, as she has won six Majors, including the French Open this season. And Mladenovic does have solid variety with her drop shots and backhand slices.
However, the Frenchwoman's rally tolerance is low, and she struggles to play offense effectively.
Bondar is the more solid player from the baseline and plays with more control when attempting to be aggressive. Bondar will be able to outlast Mladenovic in rallies and won't spray as many unforced errors as Mladenovic when trying to play offense.
Bondar also gets good depth on her groundstrokes, so it will be hard for Mladenovic to find opportunities to approach the net.
In terms of Elo ratings, Bondar's overall Elo is 128.1 points better than Mladenovic's, and her clay-court Elo is 130.6 points better than the Frenchwoman's.
Pick: Mladenovic to Not Win a Set (-112 via FanDuel)
