Angels vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - July 29, 2023

Angels at Blue Jays

7:07 pm • MLB Network

Los Angeles Angels

5-7

1 - 6

Toronto Blue Jays

6-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Manoah			5.87	3-9
R.Detmers			4.48	4-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 5-7	+1.5-190	o9.5-110	+100
Blue Jays 6-4	-1.5+155	u9.5-110	-120

Saturday 7:07 p.m.

July 29, 2023

Rogers CentreToronto

A.Manoah u16.5 Outs-125

MGM. Under in 12/16 this season, incl 2/3 since he came back and 7/8 at home (over was by 1 out). Angels wisely went lefty heavy - 6 of them, with a stack at the top of the order that includes Ohtani and the red hot Moniak. Lefties give Manoah trouble, and I see the Jays exercising caution with Manoah the third time through. Angels 10th in pitches per PA and have been hitting the ball exceptionally well - 131 wRC+, .843 OPS, 11.9% walk rate in the L2 weeks vs righties (all in the top 4).

A.Manoah u5.5 Ks-120

1.2u

Projecting closer to -145

LAA +105

0.5u

LAA -110 (F5)

0.55u

TOR o4.5-115

0.87u

A.Manoah o5.5 Ks-110

0.45u

TOR -125

R.Detmers o5.5 Ks+100

LAA +116

0.5u

Bet to +113

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The Blue Jays are 15-9 (.625) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Matt Chapman has a miss rate of 25% on inside fastballs this season -- tied for 13th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Reid Detmers has located his fastball inside 42% of the time this season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP-- 88th Percentile.

Alek Manoah has walked 17 of 100 batters (17%) versus the bottom of the order this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- 0 Percentile.

Alek Manoah has walked 14 of 78 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37
Angels	82-80	43-38	39-42	11-17	70-61

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3
Angels	74-80-8	37-40-4	37-40-4	10-17-1	62-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53
Angels	63-99	32-49	31-50	9-19	54-77

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 28th	LAA	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	TOR -207
Jul 26th	@LAD	W 8-1	+1.5 W	U 10	TOR +112
Jul 26th	@LAD	L 7-8	+1.5 W	O 9	LAD +125
Jul 25th	@LAD	W 6-3	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +102
Jul 23rd	@SEA	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +119

Anthony Rendon
IF
Rendon is out with hip
Out
Zach Neto
IF
Neto is out with shoulder
Out

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Detmers, P	91	4.2	5	2
RR.Lopez, P	19	1.1	3	0
LA. Loup, P	27	0.2	0	2
RJ. Barria, P	22	1.1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Rengifo, SS	2-4	1	0
1L.Rengifo, LF	2-4	1	0
2S.Ohtani, DH	1-2	0	0
3M.Moniak, CF	0-4	0	0
4T.Ward, LF	0-2	0	1
4A. Velazquez, PR	0-1	0	0
4A. Velazquez, SS	0-1	0	0
4T.Cabbage, PH	0-1	0	0
5M. Moustakas, 1B	1-4	0	0
6M.Thaiss, C	0-4	0	0
7H.Renfroe, RF	2-4	0	0
8E. Escobar, 3B	0-4	0	0
9M.Stefanic, 2B	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Manoah, P	82	4.1	6	1
LG.Cabrera, P	9	0.2	1	0
RJ.Jackson, P	20	0.2	1	0
RT.Richards, P	25	1.1	4	0
RN.Pearson, P	7	1	1	0
RY.Garcia, P	11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Merrifield, LF	2-5	0	0	1
1W.Merrifield, 2B	2-5	0	0	1
2B.Bichette, SS	2-5	0	0	0
3V.Guerrero, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
4M.Chapman, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
5G.Springer, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6D.Jansen, DH	1-3	1	0	0
7A.Kirk, C	3-4	3	2	3
8S.Espinal, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
8D.Varsho, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8D.Varsho, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Kiermaier, CF	1-4	1	0	0