Astros vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 19, 2024

Astros at Nationals

10:45 pm • MASN

Houston Astros

13-11

5 - 3

Washington Nationals

11-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			3.90	10-12
J.Verlander			5.48	5-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 13-11	-1.5+112	o8-115	-151
Nationals 11-13	+1.5-133	u8-105	+127

Friday 10:45 p.m.

April 19, 2024

Nationals ParkWashington

WSH +1-105

HOU -142

0.7u

... visitor off 1 run game 1st game of road trip Overall: 386-320-0,55% (ROI:14%) Season:2-2-0,50% (ROI:7%)

HOU -0.5 (F5)+105

1.05u

… f5 favs runline on a losing streak Overall: 303-316-12,49% (ROI:10%) Season:4-2-0,67% (ROI:43%)

HOU -130 (F5)

0.25u

Small to -139

M.Gore u5.5 Ks-132

0.38u

Ballpark pal projects 4.71 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -185 giving value to this number

Over 8-112

0.56u

Bet to 8.5 (-118)

M.Gore u4.5 Ks+125

0.63u

WSH +150

M.Gore u5.5 Ks-144

Via Fanduel

J.Verlander u5.5 Ks-145

Coming back from injury - he got up to 77 pitches in his last rehab start, but was lit up. 5.5 was right on his average last season (under in 13/27 starts, averaged a K every 18 pitches). Now gets the Nats who K at a below avg rate (21% vs righties), and have a decent history vs Verlander.

Featured Insight
The Astros have allowed just 3.9 runs per game since the 2022 season -- second lowest in MLB (344 games). The Nationals have scored just 4.0 runs per game since the 2022 season -- fifth lowest in MLB (342 games).

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Featured Insight
Nationals right-handed hitters have struck out just 6% against LHP over the last week -- lowest in MLB. Astros have a strikeout rate of just 15% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- third lowest in MLB.

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The Nationals are just 22-26 (.458) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

Joey Gallo has struck out in 43% of PA's since last season -- highest among hitters with at least 268 total PA's-- 0 Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 37% since last season -- fifth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 55% (12/22) against MacKenzie Gore on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 47% (9 SO in 19 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 99th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 4-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Nationals' 11 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	12-12	8-3	4-9	1-3	11-9
Astros	14-10	9-6	5-4	8-7	6-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	12-12	7-4	5-8	3-1	9-11
Astros	8-14-2	5-10	3-4-2	6-9	1-5-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	11-13	7-4	4-9	2-2	9-11
Astros	13-11	9-6	4-5	8-7	5-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 17th	@LAD	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 10	WSH +187
Apr 17th	@LAD	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 9.5	LAD +227
Apr 16th	@LAD	W 6-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	WSH +332
Apr 14th	@ATH	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 8	ATH +122
Apr 13th	@ATH	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	WSH -132

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Taylor Trammell
OF
Trammell is out with calf
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out
Pedro Leon
OF
Leon is out with knee
Out
J.P. France
P
France is out with shoulder
Out
Spencer Arrighetti
P
Arrighetti is out with thumb
Out

Michael Soroka
P
Soroka is out with biceps
Out
Paul DeJong
IF
DeJong is out with nose
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Andres Chaparro
IF
Chaparro is out with oblique
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out
DJ Herz
P
Herz is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	78	6	4	2
RB.Abreu, P	14	1	1	0
RR.Pressly, P	18	1	1	0
LJ.Hader, P	30	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-5	0	0
2Y.Alvarez, DH	0-5	0	0
3A.Bregman, 3B	0-5	0	0
4K.Tucker, RF	2-3	2	0
5Y.Diaz, C	2-4	1	1
6J.Pena, SS	3-4	1	1
7C.McCormick, LF	2-3	1	2
8J.Abreu, 1B	0-4	0	0
9M.Dubon, CF	3-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	92	4	4	3
LR.Garcia, P	19	0.1	0	1
RD.Law, P	19	1.2	0	0
RD.Floro, P	15	1	1	0
RM.Barnes, P	18	1	0	1
RT.Rainey, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Young, CF	1-3	0	0	0
1J.Gallo, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1J.Gallo, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2C.Abrams, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3J.Winker, DH	0-3	0	0	1
4L.Thomas, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5L.Garcia, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
5N.Nunez, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6J.Meneses, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7E.Rosario, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7E.Rosario, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7N.Senzel, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8R.Adams, C	2-3	2	1	1
9I.Vargas, 3B	2-3	0	0	1