Astros vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 4, 2024

.tsa umpire friendly unders Overall: 2125-1495-172,59% (ROI:13%) Season:56-46-3,55% (ROI:7%)

Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti has been on of late. Overall his 4.63 ERA is nothing to write home about; over his last three starts, though, he has been very dominant at an ERA of 1.86 and WHIP of just 0.98, indicating very good control at a limited number of base runners allowed. Also, the 22 strikeouts in 19.1 innings of those games further reinforce the fact that he can neutralize the offense of opponents and give a low score in the first five innings. Another positive factor in his favor is the groundball-to-flyball ratio, which means a person pitches fewer fly balls, therefore keeping the run total down during the early part of the game. Nick Martinez for Cincinnati is solid under projection for today's game. While the ERA sits at 3.78 and he has a 2.92 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, Martinez does consistently induce weak contact that in all ways suppresses extra-base hits and runs scored. His WHIP does sit at an admittedly elevated level of 1.41 over his last three starts, but overall career numbers seem to indicate he can be more efficient. Like Arrighetti, Martinez has accounted for 22 strikeouts over his last three outings, further solidifying his ability to neutralize a potent offense. They're on some good recent trends to the under, especially on grass. Houston has gone under in 5 of their last 8 grass games, while Cincinnati has been under in 11 of their last 15 on the same surface. This is indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games, and that should be reinforced with head-to-head meetings which have gone under in 6 of the last 8. Certainly, when the wind is blowing in from center field at 5 mph, the conditions also favor the pitchers by not allowing fly balls to turn into home runs. So, considering these trends, pitching matchups, better bullpen strength, and weather conditions, this game for the first five innings is likely to be on the low side.

Bet to +114