Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Hayden Birdsong, despite limited MLB experience, brings an intriguing arsenal that could be a difference-maker in this matchup. His 111 Stuff+ rating highlights his raw ability, with a knack for generating strikeouts, evidenced by his 27.2% K-rate in the majors and 34.4% in the minors. Though his command can be erratic (14.4% walk rate), Birdsong's recent outing against the Brewers suggests he may be turning a corner. In that performance, Birdsong posted impressive metrics: 112 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 107 Pitching+, going 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 0 runs. His ability to mix pitches effectively—particularly his elite changeup (155 Stuff+), slider (120), and curveball (115)—should help him neutralize a Baltimore offense that's been struggling in the second half of the season. Although Birdsong's fastball shape has been hittable (.444 xwOBA), the Orioles' lineup ranks only 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the trade deadline. This suggests Birdsong may not be overly punished for his weaknesses. Dean Kremer, meanwhile, has been steady but unspectacular, with a 4.48 xERA and a middling 98 Pitching+ in 2024. Projection systems suggest he's only marginally better than Birdsong, and his 12.6% K-BB% leaves much to be desired. With Birdsong's ability to generate swings and misses, the gap between these two starters isn't as wide as it appears on paper. The Giants’ bullpen ranks among the top 5 in expected FIP and holds the 4th-best botERA in the league. While Baltimore's bullpen is statistically better, they've posted a concerning 8.61 ERA over the last three games, suggesting recent volatility could be a problem. Offensively, both teams have struggled down the stretch, with the Orioles sporting a 96 wRC+ since the trade deadline and the Giants at an even lower 88 against righties. However, given Baltimore’s sub-.500 second-half record and their recent bullpen struggles, this feels like a game where San Francisco's edge in the pitching department, both in the starting matchup and bullpen, could be decisive.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Miami has been struggling offensively, managing just two wins in their last eight games and reflecting those struggles even more so at home with a poor 29-47 record. Their inability to produce runs has been a key issue, and this won’t be helped by the Dodgers' strong bullpen, which boasts a stellar ERA of 3.02, one of the best in the league. The Miami bullpen also has not been too shoddy, allowing only a 3.43 ERA in the last three games, which further cements the case for a lower-scoring game. On the mound, both Ryan Weathers and Landon Knack proffer solid starting options that like to keep runs at a premium. Weathers has a 3.77 ERA and a 2.47 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, which indicates he's inducing a number of ground balls that naturally limit big extra-base hits and potential run-scoring opportunities. His 1.14 WHIP shows good control over base runners, limiting the chances for big innings. Meanwhile, Knack with an equally productive ERA of 3.70, a WHIP of 1.09, and a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 0.95 proves that he controls the game just as well, keeping runners off base and remaining stingy in allowing the Miami offense-scoring chances. His .276 opponent OBP is indicative of his ability to suppress baserunners, and coupled with decent numbers from Weathers, the setup is there for a pitching duel. Umpire Adam Beck tugs the momentum even more in the Under's direction, as his 64.4 percent strike rate makes life on pitchers. Games worked by Beck are typically low-scoring affairs because of a lack of walks and an abundance of strikeouts, which plays out perfectly with two starters who already do a great job of maintaining control. Finally, the wind will be blowing in from center, which will knock down would-be home runs or deep extra-base hits and help to keep run production lower across the board.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Royals hold a better overall record of 82-70 compared to Detroit's 79-73 and show strong performance at home, going 45-32 this season. Kansas City starter Alec Marsh has been solid lately, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last three games, including an impressive 5.1-inning outing on 9/13/24, where he struck out 11 and allowed just 1 earned run. This performance highlights his good form coming into this matchup, which should continue against a Detroit offense that ranks lower in several key categories. Kansas City’s offensive strength is another advantage, as they boast a higher team batting average (.249) than Detroit (.232). The Royals are more efficient at converting baserunners into runs, with a runs per game average of 4.84, compared to Detroit’s 4.29. The Royals also have a higher slugging percentage (.415 vs. .387), indicating better power, and a superior stolen base success rate of 81% versus Detroit's 76.8%, which adds an extra layer of offensive pressure. At home, Kansas City is batting an even better .266 against right-handed pitchers, and although Detroit’s starter Tarik Skubal is a lefty, the Royals have shown an ability to handle his pitching. In recent matchups this season, Skubal has struggled against Kansas City, allowing 5 earned runs in 6.1 innings on 8/2/24 and 4 earned runs in 5 innings on 5/22/24. Kansas City’s familiarity and past success against Skubal could again factor into the outcome, as their lineup has consistently found ways to score runs against him. On the pitching side, Kansas City’s starters hold a slight edge over Detroit, with a 3.54 ERA compared to Detroit’s 3.70, and their bullpen remains solid with a 3.85 ERA. Detroit’s offense will likely have trouble generating significant run production against a Kansas City staff that is better at stranding baserunners, with a left-on-base ratio of 1.67:1, compared to Detroit’s 1.57:1. Given the Tigers’ lower batting average, run production, and familiarity issues with Alec Marsh, Kansas City has the pitching advantage, especially with Marsh showing a solid trend of limiting opponents' scoring opportunities recently.