Atlanta 29th in runs/game (2.4), 28th in AVG (.202). Shut out 3x, incl. Sat. Just 7 hits vs MIA, 0-for-9 RISP. Alcantara: 2.94 ERA in 13 starts vs ATL, 3.45 at Truist. Last outing: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER vs NYM. MIA scores 3.8 runs/game (20th), under in 4 of last 5. Holmes has 7.20 ERA, but MIA .236 AVG, weak HR numbers. Braves pen solid (2.00 ERA vs MIA), limits late runs if Holmes exits early. Both teams cold at the plate, limited power bats, few extra-base threats. Alcantara 73.9% GB rate, just 4.3% barrel rate allowed. MIA 21-49 at Truist, rarely scores big.

Dodgers-Phillies finale: two fire arms, ice-cold bats. Glasnow: 0.00 ERA, 40% K rate, 2 hits vs ATL. Sanchez: 1.69 ERA, 7 Ks in 5.1 IP. Phillies starters: 2.45 ERA across 47.2 IP. First 2 games = 9 total runs, 21 hits. Offenses stuck – another low scorer loading. LA lineup quiet: .212 AVG, .681 OPS in series. Phillies worse: .138 AVG, .357 OPS. Dodgers 1.90 ERA, Phillies 2.75. Glasnow allowing just .174 xBA. Sanchez gives up soft contact, just 30.8% hard-hit rate. Both pens rested. Ball not flying at Citizens Bank this week. Only Conforto hitting well – .308, 2 HRs, but lineup around him cold. Bohm/Kepler: 0-for-15. Glasnow’s slider (25.3%) eats up this swing-happy team.

Mets pitching rolling — 1.00 ERA this series, .203 opp BA, just 3 ER allowed in 3 games. Toronto bats ice cold: 2 runs or fewer in 3 of last 4, .278 AVG this series but just 1 XBH. Citi Field slow — avg 5.3 total runs through first 5 home games. Peterson, Francis can be both sharp — Peterson 36% K-rate, .251 xBA, soft contact. Francis great ground ball rate, sub-90 EV, high weak-hit %. Both limit walks, neither giving up barrels. Solid profiles for a tight, low-run game. Mets bullpen lights-out: 2.03 ERA, .191 opp AVG, 76 K in 62 IP. Jays’ pen shaky on year (4.41 ERA), but solid this series — just 1 ER past 6th inning. Lineups cold with RISP. Cold temps + wind in = pitcher friendly

Brewers’ rookie Chad Patrick tossed 4.2 scoreless last start, plus 14-1 with a 2.90 ERA in Triple-A last year. Cincinnati’s hot bats due for regression — and Spiers is 0-1, 11.45 ERA vs MIL. Patrick holds hitters to a .273 xBA, gets 50% hard-hit contact but limits barrels (6.3%). Reds’ OPS drops to .658 on the road, McLain likely out again. Milwaukee rakes at home — 4-2 record, .306+ team AVG, Frelick batting .394, Turang hit safely in all 9 games. Brewers offense trending up: 4.0 runs/game at home, deep lineup even with Yelich/Contreras cold. Reds have lost 10 straight series to MIL. Spiers' 3 career outings vs Brewers: 14 ER in 11 IP.