Astros vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 10, 2024

Astros at Royals

11:40 pm • BSKC

Houston Astros

9-9

2 - 11

Kansas City Royals

11-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Lugo			3.01	16-9
S.Arrighetti			4.53	7-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 9-9	-1.5+130	o9.5-110	-123
Royals 11-8	+1.5-155	u9.5-110	+104

Wednesday 11:40 p.m.

April 10, 2024

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

HOU -1.5+135

1.5u

J.Abreu u1 Hits (Live)+177

1.77u

Great value for a horrible hitter

HOU -120

1.2u

0.71 era for Lugo through 12.2 innings pitched. Looking for some regression here

KC +100

S.Lugo o4.5 Ks+158

0.5u

Too good of a number to pass up ballpark pal projects +116 odds and plus EV bet with devig odds at +131 showing value

Featured Insight
Astros have struck out just 20% since the 2022 season -- second lowest in MLB. Royals RPs have a strikeout rate of just 22% since the 2022 season -- tied for sixth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Royals hitters had a hard-hit rate of 42% last season -- tied for sixth best in MLB. Opponents had a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Astros last season -- tied for seventh worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 10, 2024 UTC

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The Royals are just 7-44 (.137) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.

38% of Jose Altuve strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB-- 99th Percentile. 33% of Chris Stratton strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Yordan Alvarez had an OPS of .990 last season -- sixth best among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- 98th Percentile. Alec Marsh allowed an OPS of .893 (342 PAs) last season -- third worst among qualified RPs-- first Percentile.

Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (19/48) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	87-75	43-38	44-37	40-38	46-37
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	69-88-5	38-42-1	31-46-4	32-46	36-42-5
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	86-76	45-36	41-40	49-29	36-47
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 9th	HOU	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	KC +101
Apr 7th	CWS	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	KC -130
Apr 6th	CWS	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9.5	KC -238
Apr 5th	CWS	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	KC -185
Apr 4th	CWS	W 10-1	-1.5 W	O 8	KC -185

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Taylor Trammell
OF
Trammell is out with calf
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out
Pedro Leon
OF
Leon is out with knee
Out
J.P. France
P
France is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Arrighetti, P	79	3	3	7
RB.Bielak, P	50	2	2	1
LP.Mushinski, P	54	2.2	0	3
RT.Scott, P	3	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-2	0	0
1M.Dubon, PH	0-1	0	0
1M.Dubon, LF	0-1	0	0
2Y.Alvarez, DH	1-3	0	0
2J.Singleton, PH	1-2	0	0
2J.Singleton, DH	1-2	0	0
3K.Tucker, RF	0-5	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	2-4	1	0
5Y.Diaz, C	2-3	1	1
6J.Pena, SS	1-4	0	0
7C.McCormick, LF	1-3	0	0
7G.Kessinger, 2B	0-1	0	0
8J.Abreu, 1B	0-3	0	1
9J.Meyers, CF	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Lugo, P	90	6	2	2
LA.Zerpa, P	11	1	2	0
RJ. Lyles, P	14	1	0	0
RM.Sauer, P	18	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
1N.Loftin, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1N.Loftin, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	0-3	1	0	0
2F.Fermin, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2F.Fermin, C	0-1	0	0	0
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	3-3	2	1	5
4S.Perez, C	1-4	1	0	0
4D.Blanco, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4D.Blanco, CF	0-1	0	0	0
5M.Melendez, LF	1-3	1	0	0
6N.Velazquez, DH	2-4	1	0	2
7A.Frazier, 2B	1-3	1	0	1
8H.Renfroe, RF	1-3	1	0	2
9K.Isbel, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9G.Hampson, CF	1-1	1	0	1
9G.Hampson, SS	1-1	1	0	1