Athletics vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - June 21, 2023

Athletics at Guardians

11:10 pm • BSGL

Athletics

0-0

6 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Williams			3.29	3-5
P.Blackburn			4.43	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Athletics 0-0	+1.5-130	o8-120	+154
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+109	u8+100	-188

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

June 21, 2023

Progressive FieldCleveland

Under 8.5-105

1.05u

2-0 already today. All my plays are at Vegasinsider. Follow me on Twitter. @Reno_Jonny

Under 4.5 (F5)-110

1.1u

OAK +158

0.8u

I'm showing value here, and the value is present event at books where this line is as short as +145. I've got the A's win odds at 44.4%, which may seem outrageously high, but there are a few things pushing the model that way. First, Paul Blackburn has looked really nice to open the year, using a slider that he used very little last year more often. In four starts, Blackburn has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate, up from marks of 19.1% and 9.6%, respectively, last year. That's even while facing two super tough teams in the Rays and Braves in that time. On the other side is Gavin Williams, who has looked great in Triple-A but did struggle with walks and isn't a big ground-ball guy. Williams could come up and shove immediately, but I think there's enough uncertainty here to view Oakland as a value.

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Jun 21, 2023 UTC

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The Athletics are just 11-3 (.786) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.

46% of Jonah Bride strikeouts are looking over the last 30 days -- tied for 11th highest among hitters with at least 36 total PA's-- 97th Percentile. 43% of Xzavion Curry strikeouts are looking over the last 30 days -- tied for 12th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Paul Blackburn has an ERA of 6.62 (53.0 IP) against division opponents since last season -- 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 -- fourth Percentile.

Paul Blackburn has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.7 MPH on the 156 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season -- 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Athletics	86-76	44-37	42-39	9-12	76-64

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Athletics	78-83-1	39-42	39-41-1	10-11	68-71-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Athletics	69-93	38-43	31-50	13-8	55-85

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 20th	ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9	CLE -252
Jun 18th	@ARI	W 12-3	-1.5 W	O 9	CLE -108
Jun 18th	@ARI	L 3-6	-1.5 L	U 9	ARI -110
Jun 17th	@ARI	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	ARI +160
Jun 16th	@SD	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 9	CLE +105

Miguel Andujar
OF
Andujar is out with abdominal
Out
Luis Medina
P
Medina is out with elbow
Out
Esteury Ruiz
OF
Ruiz is out with wrist
Out
Ken Waldichuk
P
Waldichuk is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Blackburn, P	90	5	7	4
RL.Erceg, P	19	1	2	0
LS.Long, P	19	1	1	1
RA.Pruitt, P	16	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Ruiz, CF	3-5	1	0	2
2R.Noda, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
3S.Brown, DH	1-5	0	0	1
4R.Laureano, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Bleday, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6J. Peterson, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7S.Langeliers, C	0-4	0	0	0
8T. Kemp, 2B	2-3	2	0	0
9T.Wade, SS	1-2	1	0	0
9A.Diaz, PH	1-2	1	0	0
9A.Diaz, SS	1-2	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Williams, P	84	5.2	4	4
LS.Hentges, P	15	0.2	0	2
RT.Stephan, P	13	0.2	1	0
RE.Morgan, P	6	1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-4	1	0	1
2A.Rosario, SS	1-5	1	0	1
3J.Ramirez, 3B	3-4	1	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	4-4	1	1	2
5J.Bell, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	0	0	1
7W.Brennan, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7G.Arias, PH	0-2	0	0	0
7G.Arias, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8M.Straw, CF	1-4	1	0	0
9B.Naylor, C	1-3	2	0	0