Braves vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 31, 2024

Braves at Brewers

6:10 pm • BSWI

Atlanta Braves

0-2

6 - 2

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9
C.Sale			2.38	18-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	-1.5+142	o7.5-104	-120
Brewers 1-2	+1.5-170	u7.5-115	+100

Wednesday 6:10 p.m.

July 31, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

Over 9.5 (Live)+110

ATL -115 (F5)

0.5u

Flat to -123

ATL -112

F.Peralta o6.5 Ks-134

0.84u

Projection lands at 7.05 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -169 giving us value at this number

F.Peralta u17.5 Outs+140

Peralta just hitting this line enough to warrant this price - he’s under in 13/21 starts, including 8/10 at home (really 7/10 though - he was ejected in the 6th in one game). Braves offense should have 6 bats with above avg pitches per PA (I’m including Soler, who is reportedly going to play) - and the offense seems to be turning a corner. And still, Peralta has stayed under this line at home versus below avg offenses (CHW, MIA, CIN, WSH).

Featured Insight
Braves hitters have a hard-hit rate of 43% this season -- second best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 42% against the Brewers RPs this season -- second worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Brewers RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 36% against LHP over the last week -- tied for second highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card
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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 31st	ATL	L 1-5	-	U 8.5	ATL -112
Jul 30th	ATL	W 8-3	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL -120
Jul 28th	MIA	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 8	MIL -214
Jul 27th	MIA	L 3-7	-1.5 L	O 8	MIA -175
Jul 27th	MIA	L 2-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIA -238

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	100	5.2	6	2
RP.Johnson, P	27	1.1	2	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	20	1	2	0
RR.Iglesias, P	15	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Soler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
1R.Laureano, RF	1-1	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	1-5	0	0	2
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-5	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	2	2	2
5T.d'Arnaud, C	2-4	2	2	2
6E.Rosario, LF	0-1	0	0	0
6A.Duvall, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Duvall, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8J.Kelenic, CF	0-4	1	0	0
9W.Merrifield, 2B	1-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	101	6	7	2
LJ.Koenig, P	17	0.2	1	0
RE.Peguero, P	9	0.1	1	0
RN.Mears, P	28	1.2	2	2
LH.Milner, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Chourio, LF	2-5	1	0
2R.Hoskins, 1B	1-4	1	0
2J.Bauers, PH	0-1	0	0
3G.Sanchez, C	2-4	0	1
4W.Adames, SS	0-4	0	0
5J.Ortiz, 3B	1-3	0	0
6B.Perkins, CF	1-1	0	1
6G.Mitchell, PH	0-1	0	0
6G.Mitchell, CF	0-1	0	0
7S.Frelick, RF	1-3	0	0
8E.Haase, DH	0-2	0	0
8W.Contreras, PH	0-1	0	0
8W.Contreras, DH	0-1	0	0
9A.Monasterio, 2B	0-3	0	0
9B.Turang, PH	0-1	0	0