Braves vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - July 25, 2024

Braves at Mets

11:10 pm • BSSE

Atlanta Braves

0-2

2 - 3

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Severino			3.91	11-7
C.Sale			2.38	18-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	-1.5+142	o7-123	-121
Mets 7-6	+1.5-170	u7+103	+100

Thursday 11:10 p.m.

July 25, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

M.Ozuna o0.5 HR+390

0.25u

F.Lindor o0.5 HR+420

1.05u

NYM -104

0.96u

Over 7.5-110

Over 7.5+100

Under 7.5-114

C.Sale u17.5 Outs+136

0.75u

Projection lands at 16.87 and a +ev pick giving us value at this number

ATL -108

$54.00

Under 7.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -119 or 7 (+100)

NYM +120 (F5)

0.3u

Small to +110

NYM +110

0.55u

Bet to +103

ATL -130

1.3u

BP4

Featured Insight
The Braves have allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- tied for third lowest in MLB (162 games). The Mets have scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB (167 games).

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The Braves are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

J.D. Martinez has struck out in 27% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 31% since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 169 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna is slugging .545 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 12th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Edwin Diaz has thrown a breaking pitch 56% of the time this season -- 15th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 35% (56 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

20 of Chris Sale's breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season -- most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 24th	@NYY	W 12-3	+1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM +143
Jul 23rd	@NYY	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +130
Jul 22nd	@MIA	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM -148
Jul 21st	@MIA	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIA -142
Jul 20th	@MIA	W 1-0	-1.5 L	U 9	NYM -166

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	94	7.1	9	2
RJ.Jimenez, P	7	0.2	1	0
RR.Iglesias, P	23	1	2	0
RP.Johnson, P	11	0.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	0-5	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	2-4	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-2	1	0
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	0	0
5T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	1
6E.Rosario, LF	0-3	0	0
6W.Merrifield, PR	0-0	0	0
6A.Duvall, LF	0-0	0	0
7N.Alvarez, 2B	0-4	0	0
8R.Laureano, RF	1-4	1	0
9O.Arcia, SS	1-3	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	95	5	6	2
RJ.Butto, P	40	3	4	0
RE.Diaz, P	13	1	2	0
RP.Maton, P	7	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-4	1	1	2
2J.Iglesias, 2B	0-4	1	0	0
3J.Martinez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Vientos, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, LF	2-4	0	0	1
7F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	0-2	1	0	0
9D.Stewart, RF	0-3	0	0	0