Braves vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - June 5, 2024

Braves at Red Sox

5:35 pm • NESN

Atlanta Braves

12-15

0 - 9

Boston Red Sox

16-14

pitcher		team	era	w-l
N.Pivetta			4.14	6-12
S.Schwellenbach			3.35	8-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 12-15	-1.5+147	o10-110	-108
Red Sox 16-14	+1.5-173	u10-110	-112

Wednesday 5:35 p.m.

June 05, 2024

Fenway ParkBoston

BOS -104

$50.00

BOS -130 (F5)

BOS o4.5 Team Total-130

R.Devers o1.5 Total Bases-125

0.8u

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases-140

N.Pivetta u17.5 Outs-130

1.3u

Under in 5/7. Perennially a high pitch per PA guy: 4.05 last year was 11th amongst qualifiers, 3.96 this year. Essentially has had to pitch an extremely clean game to get through 6 IP - and he doesn’t have a long leash the third time through. Sox pen is very rested with an off day Monday and one reliever used Tuesday. Braves core hitters mostly with a solid history vs Pivetta, including 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER earlier this season. And nice hitting conditions tomorrow - ball should carry and Pivetta is an extreme fly ball pitcher.

Featured Insight
Braves hitters have a hard-hit rate of 45% over the last two weeks -- third best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 46% against the Red Sox RPs over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.

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The Braves are 29-44 (.397) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .423.

The Red Sox are just 25-27 (.481) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Red Sox are just 49-65 (.430) after a loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

Rafael Devers has an OPS of .872 since the 2022 season -- 11th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Jake Woodford has allowed an OPS of .796 (430 PAs) since the 2022 season -- seventh worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .170 (442 PA's) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .245 -- 98th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .784 (192 Total Bases / 245 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .574 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 9-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Red Sox' 14 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	15-15	6-8	9-7	11-12	4-3
Braves	12-15	6-5	6-10	8-11	4-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	14-15-1	6-7-1	8-8	10-12-1	4-3
Braves	14-10-3	5-5-1	9-5-2	11-7-1	3-3-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	16-14	8-6	8-8	13-10	3-4
Braves	12-15	8-3	4-12	10-9	2-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 4th	ATL	L 3-8	+1.5 L	O 8	ATL +136
Jun 2nd	DET	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 9.5	DET -159
Jun 1st	DET	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 8.5	BOS -115
May 31st	DET	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	BOS -173
May 30th	DET	L 0-5	-1.5 L	U 7	DET -122

Ronald Acuna
RF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
SP
Strider is out with hamstring
Out
Nacho Alvarez
SS
Alvarez is out with wrist
Out

Lucas Giolito
SP
Giolito is out with hamstring
Out
Connor Wong
C
Wong is out with finger
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Schwellenbach, P	85	4.2	4	6
LR.Kerr, P	49	2.1	2	2
RJ.Herget, P	27	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
2B.Anderson, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3Z.Short, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
5O.Albies, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Kelenic, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Martinez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Martinez, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RN.Pivetta, P	91	7	9
RZ.Kelly, P	12	1	2
RB.Keller, P	13	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-5	2	1	1
2E.Valdez, 2B	1-4	1	0	1
2J.Westbrook, PH	1-1	0	0	0
2J.Westbrook, 2B	1-1	0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, DH	2-5	1	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	2-3	3	2	3
4B.Dalbec, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
5T.O'Neill, RF	2-4	1	0	1
6D.Smith, 1B	2-3	1	0	1
7D.Hamilton, SS	1-3	0	0	1
8C.Rafaela, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9R.McGuire, C	0-3	0	0	1