Brewers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - May 18, 2024

Brewers at Astros

11:10 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

14-15

4 - 2

Houston Astros

14-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Verlander			5.48	5-6
B.Wilson			4.04	5-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 14-15	+1.5-141	o8.5-103	+150
Astros 14-13	-1.5+118	u8.5-116	-180

Saturday 11:10 p.m.

May 18, 2024

Daikin ParkHouston

J.Verlander o1.5 BB-125

Verlander with 2, 3, 3 and 4 walks in his L4 starts. Struggling specifically against lefties (9 walks in 60 PA), and he gets 5 in the lineup today. Brewers have drawn 2+ walks from 18/L25 righty starters, and have the 10th highest BB% vs righties over the L30 days. As a team, they take a ton of pitches (lowest swing rate).

HOU -1-120

J.Pena o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-125

1.25u

Under 8.5-110

HOU -1.5+125

MIL +1.5-147

$1000.00

B.Wilson u3.5 Ks+112

1.12u

Projection leans under and +ev bet with devig odds of -108

Under 8.5-115

HOU -175

1.75u

MIL +149

0.75u

Superbook. Bet to +140

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-111

0.56u

Featured Insight
The Brewers have scored 5.2 runs per game at home this season -- third highest in MLB (21 games). The Astros have allowed 5.7 runs per game on the road this season -- highest in MLB (21 games).

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Featured Insight
Astros RPs have a strikeout rate of 31% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- third highest in MLB. Brewers left-handed hitters have struck out 30% against RHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.

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The Astros are 86-17 (.835) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

Christian Yelich is slugging just .328 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- fifth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Justin Verlander has thrown a breaking pitch 46% of the time since the 2022 season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Willy Adames has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 12th Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 37% since the 2022 season -- third highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (157/807) against Bryse Wilson since last season -- 3rd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 28% -- third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 4% (1/23) against Justin Verlander over the last 14 days -- lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% -- second Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 6-6 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Astros' 16 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	16-12	10-6	6-6	10-9	6-2
Brewers	17-12	8-5	9-7	9-5	7-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	10-16-2	6-10	4-6-2	8-11	1-5-2
Brewers	11-15-3	5-7-1	6-8-2	5-8-1	6-6-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	15-13	10-6	5-7	10-9	5-3
Brewers	14-15	9-4	5-11	10-4	3-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 18th	MIL	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	HOU -108
May 17th	ATH	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 9	HOU -205
May 16th	ATH	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9	HOU -250
May 15th	ATH	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8.5	HOU -185
May 14th	ATH	W 9-2	-1.5 W	O 9	HOU -177

Brandon Woodruff
SP
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
CF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
CF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
SP
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
SP
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Lance McCullers
SP
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Taylor Trammell
LF
Trammell is out with calf
Out
Cristian Javier
SP
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
SP
Garcia is out with elbow
Out
Pedro Leon
RF
Leon is out with knee
Out
J.P. France
SP
France is out with shoulder
Out
Spencer Arrighetti
SP
Arrighetti is out with thumb
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Wilson, P	58	4.2	3	2
LH.Milner, P	13	1.1	1	0
RE.Peguero, P	10	1	1	0
LB.Hudson, P	21	1	1	0
RT.Megill, P	16	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-4	1	1	3
3C.Yelich, DH	0-3	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Bauers, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Ortiz, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
7S.Frelick, RF	0-3	1	0	0
8J.Chourio, LF	2-3	1	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	1-2	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	98	4.2	3	4
RS.Martinez, P	33	2.1	0	0
LP.Mushinski, P	23	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2K.Tucker, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Pena, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Singleton, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
7Y.Diaz, C	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Meyers, CF	3-4	2	1	1
9M.Dubon, LF	1-3	0	0	1
9V.Caratini, PH	0-1	0	0	0