Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2024

It's a great setup to go over with both Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez starting, as recent performances and the overall offensive strength of both lineups suggest a higher-scoring game. Peralta has been inconsistent, sporting a 3.38 ERA over his last three starts, but his underlying numbers tell a more concerning story. In just 16 innings, he's allowed 15 hits and 6 earned runs. Demonstrating that even with a respectable ERA, he's still more than vulnerable, particularly against lineups like Arizona that prey on even the tiny mistakes. His habit of yielding home runs-maybe his most concerning trait-is especially concerning against an Arizona team that sits 4th in all of MLB with 191 home runs this year. The power hitters like Ketel Marte-who launched 31 homers-can make one mistake pitch an early run. In his last start against Arizona on October 4, he gave up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, proving this strong Diamondback lineup can get to him often and early in the game. Eduardo Rodriguez's recent form also makes the over all the more tantalizing. Over his last three starts, ERA is an inflated 8.10, as he's allowed 13 earned runs in just 13.1 innings. The Brewers sport a very respectable 4.79 runs per game, a number that's good for 6th in all of MLB, and are more than capable of capitalizing on his recent struggles. He's also given up a lot of hits-35 in his last 29.1 innings-which means runners are always on base and can easily translate into runs, especially given Milwaukee's aggressive style of base running. Ranked 3rd in stolen bases with 187, even when Rodriguez can manage to minimize big hits, the Brewers can still push across extra runs thanks to their speed on the basepaths. Offensively, the Arizona club has been absolutely on fire. They presently lead the league in runs per game at 5.49, batting average at .263, and OPS at .778, as they are fully capable of putting up runs in bunches. They've scored in double digits on multiple occasions of late, including a 14-run outburst against Texas back on September 11th and 12 runs against Houston on September 8th. This, of course, spells trouble for Milwaukee's pitching, as night in and night out Arizona finds ways to get runners on base and cash them in. Arizona's recent trend of running up high scores - like their 14-4 and 14-3 wins - is also a good indicator that they're in excellent form, and another crucial factor in this over bet.