Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - August 16, 2023

Brewers at Dodgers

2:10 am • MLB Network

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

2 - 6

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Miller			3.76	11-4
A.Houser			4.12	8-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	+1.5-110	o9-114	+188
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5-110	u9-106	-230

Wednesday 2:10 a.m.

August 16, 2023

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

LAD o5.5+115

2.3u

MIL +1.5-112

Under 9-115

$25.00

Party Parlay Pick

B.Miller u5.5 Ks-125

Miller is under in 8/13 starts - whiff rate sitting in the 36th percentile. Only K’ing righties at a 21% clip so far, and I project the Brewers rolling with 6 in todays lineup. MIL has kept 19/L25 righty starters under this line (incl 15/L18) - running a 20% K% over the L2 weeks. Even in a scenario where Miller faces 25 batters (which I have at 98 pitches and would be the high end of the range) I have Miller at 5.2 Ks.

A.Houser o3.5 Ks-110

0.91u

Available at FanDuel. It's a tough matchup for Houser, but he's a much higher-strikeout pitcher than this right now. He has been leaning more on his slider across his past seven starts, and he has gone under 3.5 strikeouts just once in that span. That includes a 10-strikeout outing against the Braves. In three road starts in this time, he has had 5, 5, and 3 strikeouts, the lone dud coming when he faced the Braves for the second time in consecutive starts. The big concern would be if the Dodgers take advantage of all the hard contact Houser allows, in which case he could be in trouble. But the best way to prevent that is allowing no contact at all. With this number being so low, I have no problem with taking the over.

Featured Insight
Brewers have won 56% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- tied for sixth-best in MLB. Dodgers have won just 39% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- second-worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Brewers have struck out 24% since last season -- ninth-highest in MLB. Dodgers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season -- tied for sixth-highest in MLB.

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The Dodgers are 52-38 (.578) after a road win since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.

Christian Yelich is batting .357 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 100% of Bobby Miller fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- tied for highest among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP-- 100th Percentile.

Christian Yelich is slugging .614 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- sixth best in MLB-- 96th Percentile. 100% of Bobby Miller fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- tied for highest among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP-- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 13th	COL	W 8-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	LAD -355
Aug 13th	COL	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 9.5	LAD -292
Aug 12th	COL	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	LAD -317
Aug 11th	COL	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8.5	LAD -402
Aug 10th	@ARI	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 9.5	LAD -144

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Nestor Cortes
P
Cortes is out with elbow
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Houser, P	75	5.1	6	3
LH.Milner, P	22	0.1	0	2
RB.Wilson, P	29	2.1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-4	1	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	0-3	0	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
4S.Frelick, CF	0-3	0	0	1
5W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0	0
6M.Canha, DH	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Monasterio, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Monasterio, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
8B.Anderson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8B.Anderson, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Taylor, RF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Miller, P		74	6	4	1
LR.Yarbrough, P		42	3	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Betts, 2B	2-4	0	1
1M.Betts, RF	2-4	0	1
2F.Freeman, 1B	0-4	0	0
3W.Smith, C	0-4	1	0
4M.Muncy, 3B	2-4	1	0
5J.Martinez, DH	1-4	1	1
6D.Peralta, LF	1-2	1	0
6K.Hernandez, PH	1-2	1	2
6K.Hernandez, LF	1-2	1	2
7J.Heyward, RF	1-2	0	0
7A.Rosario, PH	0-2	0	0
7A.Rosario, 2B	0-2	0	0
8J.Outman, CF	1-4	1	0
9M.Rojas, SS	1-4	0	2