Brewers vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - July 20, 2024

Brewers at Twins

11:10 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

8 - 4

Minnesota Twins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	-1.5	+1.5-205	o7.5-105	+105
Twins 0-0	u7.5	-1.5+169	u7.5-115	-125

Saturday 11:10 p.m.

July 20, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

P.Lopez o4.5 Hits Allowed-133

1.33u

Lopez has allowed 100 hits in 104 IP. Worse at home - 56 hits in 47 IP, opponents over in 7/9 starts (misses were very low BA teams - SEA and CHI). MIL is at .257 vs righties this season (5th highest) - and they should be able to throw 5 lefties at Lopez today (his worse split, .265 BA allowed). MIL also a very good fastball/slider hitting team (10th and 2nd respectively in wRAA).

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

Featured Insight
Brewers hitters have a groundball rate of 46% this season -- tied for second highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins this season -- third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Twins have answered-back in 37% of innings after an opponent scores this season -- second highest in MLB. Brewers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score this season -- second highest in MLB.

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MLB Player Prop Picks for Saturday
Doug Ziefel•
Jul 20, 2024 UTC

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The Twins are just 4-8 (.333) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

36% of Carlos Correa strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. 45% of Freddy Peralta's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 10th highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of .461 (101 Total Bases / 219 ABs) on non-fastballs this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 -- fourth Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 4 of 171 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 14th	@SF	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	SF +138
Jul 13th	@SF	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8	MIN +110
Jul 13th	@SF	L 1-7	-1.5 L	O 7.5	SF -148
Jul 10th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIN -219
Jul 10th	@CWS	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8	CWS -162

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Nestor Cortes
P
Cortes is out with elbow
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	102	6	8	0
LB.Hudson, P	18	1.1	0	1
RE.Peguero, P	13	0.1	1	0
LR.Zastryzny, P	4	0.1	0	0
RJ.Payamps, P	12	1	1	0
RT.Megill, P	8	1	1	0
RJ.Junis, P	29	2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	1-6	2	3
2W.Contreras, C	2-6	0	1
3C.Yelich, DH	0-5	0	1
4W.Adames, SS	2-4	0	0
5S.Frelick, RF	0-2	1	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	0-4	0	0
6B.Perkins, CF	1-1	1	0
7G.Mitchell, CF	1-3	1	0
7J.Bauers, PH	1-2	1	0
7J.Bauers, 1B	1-2	1	0
8J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	1	1
9J.Chourio, LF	3-5	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	109	7	7	1
RJ.Alcala, P	17	1	0	0
RG.Jax, P	14	1	0	0
RJ.Duran, P	12	1	2	0
RC.Sands, P	10	0.1	0	1
LS.Okert, P	11	0.2	0	2
RJ.Staumont, P	20	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Castro, SS	1-6	1	0	0
2T.Larnach, DH	0-2	0	0	0
2D.Castillo, PH	1-3	0	0	2
2D.Castillo, DH	1-3	0	0	2
3B.Buxton, CF	0-4	0	0	0
4B.Lee, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
5M.Kepler, RF	1-5	0	0	0
6R.Jeffers, C	0-5	0	0	0
7C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
8M.Wallner, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8M.Margot, PH	1-3	1	0	0
8M.Margot, LF	1-3	1	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
9A.Martin, PH	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Martin, 2B	0-3	0	0	0