Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - April 3, 2023

Cubs at Reds

10:40 pm • BSOH

Chicago Cubs

0-0

6 - 7

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C. Overton			11.46	0-1
D.Smyly			5.00	11-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 0-0	-1.5+130	o9-110	-120
Reds 0-0	+1.5-157	u9-110	+100

Monday 10:40 p.m.

April 03, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

T.Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases-105

0.95u

CIN o4.5+105

1.05u

C.Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases-102

$50.00

Tailing @TheDegenWeekly

CIN o3.5-118

0.85u

D.Smyly u15.5 Outs-120

Smyly only cleared this in 8 of 22 starts last season. Seems like the chances are much lower in his opening start. It’s one thing to go 15 outs (5 IP) and another to come back out in the 6th to get one more and clear this. The Reds have the 7th highest pitches per PA and the 4th lowest swing rate on the young season. Both factors should make it that much tougher for Smyly to clear this

CIN +105

1.05u

DraftKings 4:43.

T.Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases+150

0.75u

Bet365 4:42.

T.Stephenson o0.5 HR+675

0.25u

Bet365 4:41 @charliedisturco

T.Stephenson o0.5 HR+600

0.1u

T.Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases+135

0.54u

CIN +107

1.07u

Limited big league experience, but in his time as a starter he was pretty solid. 3.41 xERA & 3.66 FIP Pitches to contact but .235 xBA/.341 xSLG and a 3.0% barrel rate Smyly on the other hand is a fade target. 4.17 xERA last year with some concerns (.249 xBA, .416 xSLG & 8.6 barrel rate). All bottom 30% of pitchers and also a pitch-to-contact lefty

CIN -100

0.5u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)+104

0.5u

C.Overton u3.5 Ks-120

$60.00

CIN +102

1.02u

CIN +105 (F5)

1.05u

CIN +110

1.1u

CIN +110

0.55u

Bet to +102

CIN o1.5 (F5)-145

0.5u

Bet to -160 or 2 (-120)

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Monday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 3, 2023 UTC

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The Reds were just 14-25 (.359) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 in 2022 -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .547.

The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Drew Smyly threw his curveball 48% of the time (666/1,396) against right-handed batters in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% -- 100th Percentile.

20 of Drew Smyly's 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in 2022 -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% -- 98th Percentile.

Connor Overton has not struck out a hitter in his last 35 PAs against a LHH dating back to May 12nd, 2022 -- this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 2nd	PIT	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CIN -130
Apr 1st	PIT	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	CIN -148
Mar 30th	PIT	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -145
Mar 26th	@COL	W 7-5	-	-	-
Mar 26th	@CLE	L 2-3	-	-	-

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Smyly, P		93	4.2	3	6
RK.Thompson, P		32	3.1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-5	1	0	0
2D.Swanson, SS	3-5	2	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Bellinger, CF	1-4	1	1	3
5T. Mancini, RF	1-4	0	0	1
6P.Wisdom, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
7E. Hosmer, 1B	3-5	0	0	2
7N.Madrigal, PR	0-0	0	0	0
8E.Rios, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8L.Torrens, PH	0-0	0	0	0
8L.Torrens, DH	0-0	0	0	0
8M.Mastrobuoni, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Barnhart, C	1-3	0	0	0
9Y.Gomes, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9Y.Gomes, C	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC. Overton, P	80	4	5	5
RI.Gibaut, P	7	0.2	0	1
LA.Young, P	6	0.1	1	0
RF.Cruz, P	31	1.1	0	0
LR. Sanmartin, P	11	0.2	2	0
RB.Farmer, P	13	1	0	0
RD.Law, P	11	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	1	0	1
2S.Steer, 3B	2-3	1	0	0
3W. Myers, 1B	1-4	1	0	1
3W. Myers, RF	1-4	1	0	1
4T.Stephenson, DH	2-4	1	0	0
5K.Newman, SS	1-4	0	0	2
6S.Fairchild, LF	0-3	1	0	0
7L.Maile, C	0-4	0	0	0
8J. Barrero, CF	1-1	0	0	0
8J.Vosler, PR	1-3	2	1	3
8J.Vosler, 1B	1-3	2	1	3
9T.Friedl, RF	2-4	0	0	0
9T.Friedl, CF	2-4	0	0	0