Dodgers vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2023

Dodgers at Padres

11:10 pm • ESPN

Los Angeles Dodgers

10-8

5 - 2

San Diego Padres

4-11

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Musgrove			3.05	10-3
J. Urías			4.60	11-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 10-8	-1.5+142	o8-110	-110
Padres 4-11	+1.5-174	u8-110	-106

Sunday 11:10 p.m.

May 07, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

J.Musgrove u17.5 Outs-117

Two things - one is Musgrove’s history vs the Dodgers. He’s faced 7 of the Dodgers lineup at least 12 times, and they are a collective 46/133 off him (.345). And secondly (maybe more importantly), he’s made two starts, throwing 80 and 73 pitches. Coming back out on 7 days rest, I don’t see the Padres pushing him if he’s at ~85 pitches after 5 innings. And given the Dodgers history vs him, and the fact that the Dodgers see the 4th most pitches per PA (4.02), I have Joe in the 85-90 range after 5 IP.

SD -105

1.05u

LAD -110

Over 8-110

0.55u

Under 4.5 (F5)-126

0.95u

Under 8-105

0.95u

LAD -105

0.5u

SD -110

1.1u

Under 8-105

0.5u

Bet to -108

Over 8-105

0.53u

Project 9.5; Dodgers hitting righties, Pads hitting lefties very well. Low strikeout rates for both lineups respectively. Pads bullpen FIP falling.

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The Dodgers are 12-4 (.750) when they've hit 2 or more home runs this season -- tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.

The Padres are 4-4 (.500) when underdogs this season -- tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Padres are 23-25 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Max Muncy slugged just .257 on breaking pitches from RHP last season -- fifth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Yu Darvish allowed a SLG of just .232 on his breaking pitches last season -- sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Max Muncy batted just .182 on the road last season -- second worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Opponents batted just .188 (58-for-309) against Yu Darvish at home last season -- tied for 12th best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (142/195) in two strike counts this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has struck out 47% (8/17) of left-handed batters he faced -- best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% -- 100th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 13 of 349 right-handed batters (4%) since last season -- tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- 95th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has an average spin rate of 2533.5 RPM on fastballs since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 2233.2 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 7th	LAD	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 9	LAD -130
May 6th	LAD	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	SD +100
May 3rd	CIN	W 7-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	SD -257
May 3rd	CIN	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN -200
May 2nd	CIN	W 8-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	SD -210

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out

Michael Kopech
P
Kopech is questionable with arm
Questionable
Michael Grove
P
Grove is out with shoulder
Out
River Ryan
P
Ryan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ. Urías, P	86	5.2	3	2
RY.Almonte, P	18	1.1	2	0
LV.Gonzalez, P	15	1	1	0
LC.Ferguson, P	10	1	2	0
RE.Phillips, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, RF	1-4	1	1	1
2F.Freeman, 1B	0-5	2	0	0
3W.Smith, C	2-4	0	0	1
4M.Muncy, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Heyward, DH	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Rojas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5M.Rojas, DH	0-1	0	0	0
5M.Busch, PH	1-2	1	0	1
5M.Busch, DH	1-2	1	0	1
6J.Outman, CF	1-4	1	1	2
7M.Vargas, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8D.Peralta, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8T. Thompson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8T. Thompson, LF	0-1	0	0	0
9C.Taylor, SS	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Musgrove, P	81	5	5	0
LT.Hill, P	14	0.2	1	0
RS.Wilson, P	17	1	2	0
RN.Martinez, P	22	1.1	1	0
LJ.Hader, P	13	1	0	1
RB.Honeywell, P	22	1	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	1-5	1	0
2M.Machado, 3B	3-5	1	1
3J.Soto, LF	1-5	0	0
4X.Bogaerts, SS	1-3	0	1
5N. Cruz, DH	0-4	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	1-4	0	0
7H.Kim, 2B	2-4	0	0
8A.Nola, C	0-2	0	0
8B.Sullivan, PH	0-2	0	0
8B.Sullivan, C	0-2	0	0
9A. Engel, CF	0-2	0	0
9T.Grisham, PH	0-2	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	0-2	0	0