Guardians vs. Tigers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 11, 2024

Guardians at Tigers

5:10 pm • BSGL

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

1 - 10

Detroit Tigers

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Flaherty			2.95	7-5
S.Howard			9.00	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 4-6	+1.5-198	o8-110	+101
Tigers 4-3	-1.5+164	u8-110	-120

Thursday 5:10 p.m.

July 11, 2024

Comerica ParkDetroit

J.Flaherty u16.5 Outs+105

Flaherty hasn’t pitched in two weeks, due to a back injury that has now caused him to miss a start twice in the last month. The first time he came back from it, he was limited to 73 pitches / 5 IP (only on 10 days rest, now 13). Already a very high pitches per PA guy (4.02 overall, and 4.08 vs lefties - he’ll see 8 today). Just don’t see the Tigers pushing him - to me this is worth it at these odds.

CLE +114

J.Flaherty o5.5 Ks+125

CLE +120

CLE +118

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to +105

Featured Insight
Guardians RPs have allowed a SLG of just .356 since last season -- second best in MLB. Tigers hitters are slugging just .365 versus relief pitchers since last season -- fifth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Thursday MLB Betting Card
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Jul 11, 2024 UTC

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The Guardians are 55-33 (.625) this season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

34% of Steven Kwan strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 43% of Jason Foley strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- tied for second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (221/656) against Jack Flaherty this season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .264 (349 PAs) this season -- tied for 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP-- 92nd Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .370 (649 PAs) last season -- tied for 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .327 (33-for-101) against Spencer Howard this season -- highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .236 -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Tigers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 10th	CLE	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	DET +124
Jul 9th	CLE	L 8-9	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CLE +120
Jul 8th	CLE	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	DET +120
Jul 7th	@CIN	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8	DET -135
Jul 6th	@CIN	W 5-3	+1.5 W	U 9	DET +136

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Howard, P	75	3	4	4
RP.Avila, P	48	2.1	2	4
RN.Sandlin, P	21	0.2	2	1
RA.Hedges, P	20	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	1-3	0	0	0
1J.Noel, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2A.Martinez, CF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, DH	0-3	0	0	0
4D.Schneemann, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Fry, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
6T.Freeman, PH	1-1	0	0	0
6T.Freeman, 2B	1-1	0	0	0
7W.Brennan, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	1-3	1	1	1
9B.Rocchio, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Flaherty, P	83	6	4	1
LA.Chafin, P	11	1	1	0
RS.Miller, P	21	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Perez, RF	1-4	1	0	0
2C.Keith, 2B	0-3	2	0	1
3M.Vierling, CF	2-4	1	0	1
3A.Ibanez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3A.Ibanez, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4R.Greene, LF	3-4	1	0	3
4A.Baddoo, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4A.Baddoo, CF	0-1	0	0	0
5C.Kelly, C	1-3	2	1	1
6Z.McKinstry, 3B	0-4	1	0	1
6Z.McKinstry, LF	0-4	1	0	1
7G.Urshela, 1B	2-5	1	0	3
7G.Urshela, 3B	2-5	1	0	3
8J.Baez, SS	1-2	1	0	0
9J.Malloy, DH	1-4	0	0	0