Guardians vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2023

Guardians at Twins

11:40 pm • BSN

Cleveland Guardians

5-7

6 - 10

Minnesota Twins

5-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Maeda			4.23	6-8
X.Curry			4.07	3-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 5-7	+1.5-145	o8.5-122	+145
Twins 5-5	-1.5+120	u8.5+100	-175

Monday 11:40 p.m.

August 28, 2023

Target FieldMinneapolis

MIN -165

MIN -164

0.85u

Available at FanDuel. My model has the Twins' win odds at 68.4%, up from 62.1%. They're facing Xzavion Curry, who has had some rough underlying numbers as he has gotten stretched out. In nine outings with increased pitch counts, he's letting up a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 54.9% fly-ball rate. That's going up against a Twins offense that loves to strike out but still has a 112 wRC+ against righties. The Twins will start Kenta Maeda, who has a 3.26 SIERA since returning from the IL. Even with Cleveland's offense playing better now than it was earlier in the year, I still think the Twins deserve to be a bit shorter here.

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -102

Featured Insight
Twins Right Handed Hitters have struck out 23% against LHP since last season -- ninth-highest in MLB. GuardiansRPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- seventh-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Guardians have scored just 4.1 runs per game over the last week -- fifth-lowest in MLB (138 games). The Twins have allowed just 4.1 runs per game over the last week -- tied for fifth-lowest in MLB (138 games).

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MLB NRFI Bet for Monday: Custom Combo of Greinke & Maeda
Shayne Trail•
Aug 28, 2023 UTC

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 27th	TEX	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIN +104
Aug 26th	TEX	L 2-6	+1.5 L	O 7.5	TEX +105
Aug 26th	TEX	W 12-2	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -126
Aug 24th	TEX	W 7-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -120
Aug 23rd	@MIL	L 7-8	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +120

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out
Daniel Espino
P
Espino is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RX.Curry, P	53	2	2	6
LD. Norris, P	48	2	1	4
RE.Morgan, P	28	1.1	4	0
RE.De Los Santos, P	27	1.2	3	0
RJ.Karinchak, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	1-4	0	0	1
2J.Ramirez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3K. Calhoun, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
4R.Laureano, RF	2-4	1	0	0
5A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	1	0	1
6W.Brennan, DH	0-3	0	0	1
7G.Arias, SS	2-4	2	0	1
8B.Naylor, C	1-4	1	1	2
9M.Straw, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Maeda, P	66	4	3	6
LK.Funderburk, P	28	2	3	0
RJ.Winder, P	24	3	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
1K.Farmer, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
2R.Lewis, 3B	2-4	2	1	4
3M.Kepler, RF	1-3	1	0	0
4C.Correa, SS	1-4	1	0	0
5J.Polanco, DH	2-4	2	1	3
6R.Jeffers, C	0-4	0	0	0
7M.Wallner, LF	1-3	2	1	1
8D.Solano, 1B	3-4	1	0	1
9M.Taylor, CF	1-4	0	0	0