Mariners vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2023

Mariners at Guardians

8:10 pm • BSGL

Seattle Mariners

0-0

5 - 3

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Civale			5.36	2-3
L.Gilbert			3.73	13-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 0-0	+1.5-200	o7.5-115	-105
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+168	u7.5-105	-120

Friday 8:10 p.m.

April 07, 2023

Progressive FieldCleveland

A.Civale u5.5 Ks-122

Civale threw 7 scoreless innings with 3 Ks in his opening start. The underlying metrics support his low K rate to begin the season as he only managed to generate a 6% swinging strike rate and none of his pitches were able to produce a 20%+ whiff rate. He saw a 21% called strike rate which will likely regress towards 17% going forward, which will make it even tougher for him to rack up Ks. 5 Ks is the most likely outcome (21%) and I’m showing a fair price closer to -165, but based on his early season sample, there looks to be even more value in fading him here

SEA +110

$27.50

Under 7.5-115

0.46u

SEA +114

1.14u

Under 7-104

SEA -105

A.Civale u5.5 Ks-134

Not a swing and miss pitcher (he’s never been in the 40th percentile in whiff%). Looked great vs Sea in his first outing, but only struck out 3 of 23 hitters and induced 5 whiffs. Mariners profile as one of the lesser K prone teams this season. Only big liability is Kelenic (Civale historically better vs lefties) - but a lot more contact hitters this season (Wong, Pollock, Raleigh more consistent).

Under 7+100

0.5u

Need +100 or better

CLE -104 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -111

CLE -108

0.54u

Bet to -115

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The Mariners are 42-11 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Mariners are 35-42 (.455) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Guardians are 71-95 (.428) when underdogs since the 2021 season -- 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

The Guardians are 34-14 (.708) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

Amed Rosario slugged .838 on the first pitch of at-bats last season -- eighth best in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Logan Gilbert allowed a SLG of .768 on the first pitch of at-bats last season -- third worst among qualified SPs-- sixth Percentile.

Josh Bell had an OPS of just .355 with two strikes over the last 30 days -- fourth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Logan Gilbert allowed an OPS of just .328 (76 PAs) with two strikes over the last 30 days -- sixth best among qualified SPs-- 90th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of 28% (153/537) versus Logan Gilbert in 2022 -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Aaron Civale this season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 -- 95th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Mariners	74-88	38-43	36-45	47-62	26-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Mariners	76-76-10	31-45-5	45-31-5	50-55-4	25-21-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Mariners	85-77	49-32	36-45	62-47	23-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	@ATH	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8	CLE -130
Apr 5th	@ATH	L 3-4	-1.5 L	O 6.5	ATH -190
Apr 4th	@ATH	W 12-11	-1.5 L	O 7.5	CLE -150
Apr 2nd	@SEA	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 8	CLE +100
Apr 2nd	@SEA	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 7	CLE +115

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Gilbert, P	81	4	6	3
RP.Murfee, P	11	1	0	0
RT.Gott, P	17	1	2	0
RM.Brash, P	14	1	3	0
RA.Munoz, P	11	1	1	0
RP.Sewald, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Rodriguez, CF	2-5	1	1	2
2T.France, 1B	1-5	0	0	1
3E.Suarez, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4C.Raleigh, C	1-3	0	0	0
5T.Hernandez, RF	1-5	0	0	0
6K. Wong, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7J.Kelenic, LF	1-4	1	0	0
8C.Hummel, DH	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Crawford, SS	2-4	2	0	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	103	5.2	5	4
RN.Sandlin, P	14	0.2	0	1
LT.Herrin, P	25	1.2	3	0
RX.Curry, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	0-4	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	1-3	2	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	2-4	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	1-4	0	1
6O. González, RF	0-4	0	0
7A.Gimenez, 2B	1-3	1	0
8M. Zunino, C	0-3	0	0
8W.Brennan, PH	0-1	0	0
9M.Straw, CF	1-3	0	1