Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2023

Marlins at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Miami Marlins

3-8

6 - 2

Boston Red Sox

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Ort			6.26	1-2
B.Garrett			3.66	9-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 3-8	-1.5+118	o9-120	-134
Red Sox 7-6	+1.5-142	u9-102	+114

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

June 28, 2023

Fenway ParkBoston

BOS +112

0.89u

B.Garrett o5.5 Ks+105

Garrett is over this line in 8/9 (miss was at Coors). I sound like a broken record - but after he got massacred by the Braves, he upped his cutter usage and the results have been fantastic. He’s not just been good - he’s pitched like an ace. Since May 8th, he’s first out of 82 qualified pitches in CSW% (34.3%) and xFIP (2.09). Yes, it’s a tough matchup, but he’s pushed past this number in tough spots this season (6 K vs ARI, 8 K vs WSH).

MIA u4.5-110

1.1u

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The Marlins are 25-9 (.735) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Marlins are 27-18 (.600) after a win this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

Connor Wong has struck out in 40% of PA's over the last 30 days -- second highest in MLB-- 0 Percentile. Braxton Garrett has a strikeout rate of 41% over the last 30 days -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 99th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has walked 14 of 314 batters (4%) this season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 95th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .362 (34-for-94) against Braxton Garrett this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 -- first Percentile.

Justin Garza has allowed a slugging percentage of .789 (15 Total Bases / 19 ABs) over the last 14 days (3 games) -- 4th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .361 -- fourth Percentile.

Justin Garza has allowed an OPS of 1.289 (24 PA's) -- 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .677 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 27th	MIA	L 1-10	-1.5 L	O 9.5	MIA -137
Jun 25th	@CWS	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 10	CWS -124
Jun 24th	@CWS	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	CWS -115
Jun 24th	@CWS	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	BOS -125
Jun 22nd	@MIN	L 0-6	+1.5 L	U 9	MIN +124

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Garrett, P	66	5	2	1
RH.Brazoban, P	23	1.2	2	0
LA.Nardi, P	5	0.1	1	0
LT.Scott, P	14	1	1	0
RD.Floro, P	19	0.1	0	1
LA.Puk, P	3	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-5	0	0	1
2J.Soler, DH	0-3	1	0	0
3B.De La Cruz, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
5G.Cooper, 1B	1-3	2	1	1
6J. Segura, 3B	1-4	0	0	2
7J.Wendle, SS	2-4	1	0	0
8N.Fortes, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J. Davis, RF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Ort, P	24	2	1	1
RN.Pivetta, P	62	3.1	7	2
RJ.Winckowski, P	10	0.1	1	1
LB.Bernardino, P	18	1.1	1	0
LC.Murphy, P	46	2	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Turner, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, LF	2-4	0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
5A.Duvall, DH	1-3	0	0	0
6C. Arroyo, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
6J.Duran, PH	2-2	0	0	1
6J.Duran, CF	2-2	0	0	1
7E.Hernandez, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7E.Hernandez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7M.Yoshida, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8C.Wong, C	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Casas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8C. Hamilton, C	0-0	0	0	0
9D.Hamilton, SS	1-3	0	0	0