Mets vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - April 11, 2024

Mets at Braves

4:20 pm • BSSO

New York Mets

8-9

16 - 4

Atlanta Braves

8-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Winans			15.26	0-2
J.Quintana			3.75	10-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 8-9	+1.5-139	o10-111	+140
Braves 8-7	-1.5+117	u10-111	-166

Thursday 4:20 p.m.

April 11, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

F.Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (Live)-105

0.55u

P.Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (Live)+128

0.64u

NYM +145

1.45u

... low scoring div dogs away early season Overall: 324-328-0,50% (ROI:14%) Season:2-4-0,33% (ROI:-16%)

R.Acuña o1.5 Total Bases-115

1.15u

Under 9.5-120

$60.00

J.Quintana u4.5 Ks-125

0.4u

Ballpark pal projects 3.82 Ks and +EV with devig odds of -153 odds giving value at this number

F.Lindor u1.5 Total Bases-127

0.79u

God bless bad baseball players

B.Nimmo o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs-140

NYM +150

4.5u

NYM +150

1.5u

Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 36% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB. Braves left-handed hitters have struck out 26% against RHP over the last week -- ninth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves hitters had a hard-hit rate of 46% last season -- best in MLB. Opponents had a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Mets last season -- sixth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Thursday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 11, 2024 UTC
Mets vs. Braves: Runs Likely Limited
D.J. James•
Apr 11, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 26-17 (.605) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .384.

The Braves are 26-32 (.448) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Mets are just 15-27 (.357) after a road loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Mets are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Ronald Acuna is batting .316 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- best in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Tanner Scott has thrown his slider 57% of the time since the 2022 season -- fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna had an OPS of .905 last season -- ninth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Bryan Hoeing allowed an OPS of .826 (304 PAs) last season -- 14th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 40% (25/63) when ahead in the count this season -- lowest among in NL; League Avg: 60% -- second Percentile.

Opponents have not swung and missed (0/16) against Jose Quintana on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 9th	NYM	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9.5	ATL -186
Apr 8th	NYM	L 7-8	-1.5 L	O 10	NYM -231
Apr 7th	ARI	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -250
Apr 6th	ARI	W 9-8	-1.5 L	O 9	ATL -205
Apr 5th	ARI	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9	ATL -310

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	100	5.1	4	3
RD.Smith, P	22	1.2	2	0
LT. Jay, P	39	2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	2-5	2	0	2
1T.Taylor, PH	1-1	1	1	4
1T.Taylor, LF	1-1	1	1	4
2S.Marte, RF	2-5	2	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-6	1	0	0
3Z.Short, SS	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-4	2	0	0
5B.Baty, 3B	1-5	0	0	1
6F.Alvarez, C	2-5	2	0	2
7J.McNeil, 2B	2-3	2	0	3
8D.Stewart, DH	1-5	1	1	2
9H.Bader, CF	2-5	3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Winans, P	82	5	1	6
LD.Lee, P	35	2	2	0
LT.Matzek, P	21	1	0	2
RL.Guillorme, P	20	1	0	4

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	0-4	0	0
1F.Wall, RF	0-1	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-5	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-5	1	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-5	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-2	0	0
6A.Duvall, LF	2-4	1	1
7M.Harris, CF	1-4	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-3	1	0
9C.Tromp, C	2-4	1	2