Mets vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - April 11, 2024

Mets at Braves

4:20 pm • BSSO

New York Mets

7-6

16 - 4

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Winans			15.26	0-2
J.Quintana			3.75	10-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	+1.5-139	o10-111	+140
Braves 0-2	-1.5+117	u10-111	-166

Thursday 4:20 p.m.

April 11, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

NYM +145

1.45u

... low scoring div dogs away early season Overall: 324-328-0,50% (ROI:14%) Season:2-4-0,33% (ROI:-16%)

R.Acuña o1.5 Total Bases-115

1.15u

R.Acuña o1.5 Total Bases-115

0.86u

R.Acuña o0.5 HR+400

0.25u

Under 9.5-120

$60.00

J.Quintana u4.5 Ks-125

0.4u

Ballpark pal projects 3.82 Ks and +EV with devig odds of -153 odds giving value at this number

F.Lindor u1.5 Total Bases-127

0.79u

God bless bad baseball players

NYM +150

4.5u

NYM +150

1.5u

Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 36% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB. Braves left-handed hitters have struck out 26% against RHP over the last week -- ninth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves hitters had a hard-hit rate of 46% last season -- best in MLB. Opponents had a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Mets last season -- sixth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Thursday
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Apr 11, 2024 UTC
Mets vs. Braves: Runs Likely Limited
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The Braves are 26-17 (.605) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .384.

The Braves are 26-32 (.448) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Mets are just 15-27 (.357) after a road loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Mets are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Ronald Acuna is batting .316 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- best in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Tanner Scott has thrown his slider 57% of the time since the 2022 season -- fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna had an OPS of .905 last season -- ninth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Bryan Hoeing allowed an OPS of .826 (304 PAs) last season -- 14th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 40% (25/63) when ahead in the count this season -- lowest among in NL; League Avg: 60% -- second Percentile.

Opponents have not swung and missed (0/16) against Jose Quintana on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 9th	NYM	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9.5	ATL -186
Apr 8th	NYM	L 7-8	-1.5 L	O 10	NYM -231
Apr 7th	ARI	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -250
Apr 6th	ARI	W 9-8	-1.5 L	O 9	ATL -205
Apr 5th	ARI	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9	ATL -310

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	100	5.1	4	3
RD.Smith, P	22	1.2	2	0
LT. Jay, P	39	2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	2-5	2	0	2
1T.Taylor, PH	1-1	1	1	4
1T.Taylor, LF	1-1	1	1	4
2S.Marte, RF	2-5	2	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-6	1	0	0
3Z.Short, SS	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-4	2	0	0
5B.Baty, 3B	1-5	0	0	1
6F.Alvarez, C	2-5	2	0	2
7J.McNeil, 2B	2-3	2	0	3
8D.Stewart, DH	1-5	1	1	2
9H.Bader, CF	2-5	3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Winans, P	82	5	1	6
LD.Lee, P	35	2	2	0
LT.Matzek, P	21	1	0	2
RL.Guillorme, P	20	1	0	4

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	0-4	0	0
1F.Wall, RF	0-1	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-5	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-5	1	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-5	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-2	0	0
6A.Duvall, LF	2-4	1	1
7M.Harris, CF	1-4	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-3	1	0
9C.Tromp, C	2-4	1	2