Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2024

Mets at Brewers

11:15 pm • FOX

New York Mets

89-73

0 - 6

Milwaukee Brewers

93-69

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Koenig			2.47	9-4
J.Quintana			3.75	10-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 89-73	-1.5	-1.5+150	o8.5-105	-105
Brewers 93-69	u8	+1.5-176	u8.5-115	-115

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

September 28, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

B.Nimmo o0.5 RBI+200

0.25u

Big edge in our Action Network model, splitting half across Nim & Pete

P.Alonso o0.5 RBI+210

0.25u

J.Koenig u1.5 Ks-190

1.25u

nothing on the line for them but still expecting just an inning

Over 8-110

0.55u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Mets hitters have a hard-hit rate of 42% this season -- fourth best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Brewers RPs this season -- third worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Brewers have allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- lowest in MLB (211 games). The Mets have scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- third lowest in MLB (196 games).

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The Mets are 73-21 (.777) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

William Contreras is batting .308 on breaking pitches from LHP since the 2022 season -- tied for seventh best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Jose Quintana has thrown his curveball 27% of the time since the 2022 season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 192 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

76% of non-fastball strikeouts for William Contreras are located out of the zone this season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 78% of Jose Quintana non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- tied for fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Jared Koenig has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (429/998) this season -- 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 98th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (451/924) when ahead in the count this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% -- first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,259/2,143) against right-handed batters this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120
Sep 25th	@PIT	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -159
Sep 24th	@PIT	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 8	MIL -153
Sep 22nd	ARI	W 10-9	-1.5 L	O 8	MIL -135

Wade Miley
P
Miley is out with elbow
Out
Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with wrist
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out
Kodai Senga
P
Senga is out with thigh
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	92	4.1	9	2
RP.Maton, P	15	1.2	4	0
RR.Stanek, P	11	1	2	0
RR.Garrett, P	25	0.2	2	4
LD.Young, P	8	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
3M.Vientos, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4B.Nimmo, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6S.Marte, RF	1-3	0	0	0
7L.Torrens, C	0-2	0	0	0
7T.Taylor, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7T.Taylor, CF	0-1	0	0	0
8H.Bader, CF	0-2	0	0	0
8F.Alvarez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8F.Alvarez, C	0-1	0	0	0
9L.Acuna, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LJ.Koenig, P	19	1	2
RT.Myers, P	56	4	5
RJ.Payamps, P	14	1	3
LA.Ashby, P	11	1	0
RN.Mears, P	7	1	1
RD.Williams, P	14	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Chourio, RF	2-5	0	0
1J.Chourio, LF	2-5	0	0
2G.Mitchell, CF	1-3	1	0
2G.Mitchell, RF	1-3	1	0
3W.Contreras, C	0-3	1	0
4W.Adames, SS	2-4	2	1
5R.Hoskins, 1B	0-3	1	0
6G.Sanchez, DH	0-2	0	0
6J.Bauers, PH	1-2	1	0
6J.Bauers, DH	1-2	1	0
7I.Collins, LF	1-3	0	0
7B.Perkins, CF	0-0	0	0
8J.Ortiz, 3B	1-3	0	3
9A.Monasterio, 2B	1-4	0	2