Nationals vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 28, 2024

Nationals at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSO

Washington Nationals

0-0

0 - 2

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			3.25	11-10
J.Irvin			4.41	10-14

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nationals 0-0	+1.5+105	o8.5-101	+207
Braves 0-2	-1.5-125	u8.5-119	-252

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

May 28, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

M.Fried u5.5 Hits Allowed-125

1.25u

Fried is under this line in 7/10 games. Great history vs this Nats roster (collectively only 13 hits in 80 PA). the Nats overall are under this line in 9/14 vs lefty starters, hitting .223 vs southpaws this season.

M.Fried u5.5 Ks-130

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases-105

0.95u

WSH +205

0.7u

Both buying into Jake Irvin and selling the Braves a bit with no Ronald Acuna Jr. Irvin's new cutter seems to have worked really well for him. Will still need the Nats to score against Max Fried, which could be a chore, but I do think there's good value here.

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Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 5.3 runs per game at home since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB (186 games). The Nationals have allowed 5.0 runs per game on the road since the 2022 season -- third highest in MLB (190 games).

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .428.

Matt Olson has an OPS of .877 since the 2022 season -- 10th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

62% of Austin Riley fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 70% of Jake Irvin fastball strikeouts are elevated this season -- seventh highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (107/165) against Max Fried this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 27th	WSH	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 9	WSH -210
May 26th	@PIT	W 8-1	-1.5 W	O 8	ATL -238
May 25th	@PIT	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PIT -154
May 24th	@PIT	L 5-11	-1.5 L	O 9	PIT -180
May 23rd	@CHC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL +101

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Irvin, P	90	6	10	0
RJ.Barnes, P	24	1	2	2
RD.Law, P	18	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Meneses, 1B	3-3	0	0	0
3E.Rosario, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4N.Senzel, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
5K.Ruiz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Winker, LF	1-2	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8R.Adams, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P		103	8	6	0
RR.Iglesias, P		11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5O.Albies, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
6S.Murphy, C	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Kelenic, LF	0-2	0	0	1
8A.Duvall, RF	1-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0