Padres vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2023

Padres at Pirates

11:05 pm • SportsNet PT
1 - 7
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Mitch Keller logoM.KellerPittsburgh Pirates logo4.2113-9
Blake Snell logoB.SnellSan Diego Padres logo2.2514-9

Padres at Pirates Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres
4-3
-1.5+105
o8-115
-160
Pirates
0-0
+1.5-126
u8-105
+134
location pinWednesday 11:05 p.m.
June 28, 2023
PNC ParkPittsburgh
Padres vs. Pirates Expert Picks
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
515d ago
Last 30d: 81-85-3 (-13.1u)
Under 8.5-110
3u
Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner
516d ago
Last 30d: 35-31-0 (-1.5u)
B.Snell u7.5 Ks-106
1.06u
Projecting closer to -150
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
516d ago
Last 30d: 128-101-1 (+15.8u)
Under 8-105
1u
Wish I got 8.5, but that’s life eh - SnellSZN
Markus Markets
Markus Markets
516d ago
Last 30d: 80-89-3 (+28.9u)
B.Snell o17.5 Outs+100
1u
M.Keller o5.5 Ks-130
1u
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
516d ago
Last 30d: 125-108-2 (+21.8u)
B.Snell u7.5 Ks-141
$71.00
I’m going to regret this deeply by ~10pm ET. See you then!
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
516d ago
Last 30d: 16-21-0 (+10.5u)
M.Keller o5.5 Ks-122
1u
Available at FanDuel. It's not a fun matchup for Keller, but the Padres do have a 23.3% strikeout rate on the active roster against righties. Keller, himself, has gone back to using his slider a bit more across his past eight starts. In that time, his strikeout rate is 27.8%. The Padres do draw out plate appearances, which can be a bummer, but Keller gets plenty of leash. I have him projected for 7.3 strikeouts here, enough cushion to lay -122 on the over.
PIT +140
1.12u
My model is very high on Blake Snell given his recent improvements, and I'm still showing value in the Pirates here. My model puts them at 46.7% to win, up from 41.7% implied at this number. Mitch Keller hasn't been as stellar of late as he was to open the season, but his underlying numbers are still solid with a 3.28 SIERA in his past 8 starts. The Padres' wRC+ falls to 98 against righties, so it's not as much of a nightmare matchup as it may seem. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close, pushing me to take the plus money on the dog.
Capper Central
Capper Central
516d ago
Last 30d: 66-64-0 (-11.9u)
M.Keller o17.5 Outs-145
$100.00
Personal play
BJ Cunningham
BJ Cunningham
516d ago
Last 30d: 29-25-3 (+1.9u)
PIT +140
1.4u
PIT +133 (F5)
1.33u
Charlie DiSturco
Charlie DiSturco
517d ago
Last 30d: 43-67-3 (-8.5u)
Under 9-120
1u

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Padres vs. Pirates Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Padres vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages

100%

Bets%

0%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
88-7443-3845-3629-3459-39
Padres
82-7835-4547-3343-5737-19

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Pirates
77-81-440-38-337-43-131-30-246-50-2
Padres
81-74-544-34-237-40-351-44-528-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
76-8639-4237-4435-2841-57
Padres
93-6945-3547-3358-4231-25

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Jun 27thSDW 9-4+1.5 WO 9.5PIT +125
Jun 25th@MIAL 0-2+1.5 LU 7MIA +144
Jun 24th@MIAL 3-4+1.5 WU 8MIA +144
Jun 23rd@MIAW 3-1+1.5 WU 7.5PIT +177
Jun 22nd@MIAL 4-6+1.5 LO 7MIA +140

Pirates vs. Padres Injury Updates

Pirates Injuries

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes
    IF

    Hayes is out with back

    Out

  • Johan Oviedo
    P

    Oviedo is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Endy Rodriguez
    C

    Rodriguez is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

Padres Injuries

    Padres vs. Pirates Box Score
    Padres Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    Blake Snell logoLB.Snell, P1026102
    Nick Martinez logoRN.Martinez, P31005
    Luis Garcia logoRL.Garcia, P22110
    Ray Kerr logoLR.Kerr, P12100
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Ha-Seong Kim logo1H.Kim, 2B0-5000
    Fernando Tatis logo2F.Tatis, RF1-4100
    Juan Soto logo3J.Soto, LF0-3000
    Manny Machado logo4M.Machado, 3B1-4000
    Xander Bogaerts logo5X.Bogaerts, SS2-4001
    Jake Cronenworth logo6J.Cronenworth, 1B0-4000
    Gary Sanchez logo7G.Sanchez, C0-4000
    Matt Carpenter logo8M.Carpenter, DH1-2000
    Rougned Odor logo8R. Odor, PR1-1000
    Rougned Odor logo8R. Odor, DH1-1000
    Trent Grisham logo9T.Grisham, CF1-3000
    Pirates Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    Mitch Keller logoRM.Keller, P104651
    Carmen Mlodzinski logoRC.Mlodzinski, P13120
    Yerry de los Santos logoRY.de los Santos, P11100
    Cody Bolton logoRC.Bolton, P29110
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Connor Joe logo1C.Joe, LF1-4102
    Connor Joe logo1C.Joe, RF1-4102
    Andrew McCutchen logo2A.McCutchen, DH1-5000
    Henry Davis logo3H.Davis, RF2-4102
    Jason Delay logo3J.Delay, C0-0000
    Carlos Santana logo4C.Santana, 1B2-4112
    Rodolfo Castro logo5R.Castro, 2B0-4000
    Nick Gonzales logo6N.Gonzales, SS1-3100
    Jack Suwinski logo7J.Suwinski, CF0-2100
    Jared Triolo logo8J.Triolo, 3B1-3100
    Austin Hedges logo9A.Hedges, C0-2000
    Joshua Palacios logo9J.Palacios, PH1-2101
    Joshua Palacios logo9J.Palacios, LF1-2101

    Padres vs. Pirates Odds Comparison

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    Padres at Pirates Team Totals

    MatchupOverUnder
    Padres
    4-3
    N/A
    N/A
    Pirates
    0-0
    N/A
    N/A