Padres vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2023

Padres at Pirates

11:05 pm • SportsNet PT

San Diego Padres

5-14

1 - 7

Pittsburgh Pirates

10-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Keller			4.21	13-9
B.Snell			2.25	14-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 5-14	-1.5+105	o8-115	-160
Pirates 10-9	+1.5-126	u8-105	+134

Wednesday 11:05 p.m.

June 28, 2023

PNC ParkPittsburgh

Under 8.5-110

B.Snell u7.5 Ks-106

1.06u

Projecting closer to -150

Under 8.5-120

Under 8-105

Wish I got 8.5, but that’s life eh - SnellSZN

SD -0.5 (F5)+100

B.Snell o17.5 Outs+100

M.Keller o5.5 Ks-130

PIT +1.5-125

B.Snell u7.5 Ks-141

$71.00

I’m going to regret this deeply by ~10pm ET. See you then!

M.Keller o5.5 Ks-122

Available at FanDuel. It's not a fun matchup for Keller, but the Padres do have a 23.3% strikeout rate on the active roster against righties. Keller, himself, has gone back to using his slider a bit more across his past eight starts. In that time, his strikeout rate is 27.8%. The Padres do draw out plate appearances, which can be a bummer, but Keller gets plenty of leash. I have him projected for 7.3 strikeouts here, enough cushion to lay -122 on the over.

PIT +140

1.12u

My model is very high on Blake Snell given his recent improvements, and I'm still showing value in the Pirates here. My model puts them at 46.7% to win, up from 41.7% implied at this number. Mitch Keller hasn't been as stellar of late as he was to open the season, but his underlying numbers are still solid with a 3.28 SIERA in his past 8 starts. The Padres' wRC+ falls to 98 against righties, so it's not as much of a nightmare matchup as it may seem. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close, pushing me to take the plus money on the dog.

M.Keller o17.5 Outs-145

$100.00

Personal play

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The Pirates are just 28-50 (.359) after a road loss since last season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.

The Padres are just 7-38 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Padres are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

34% of Ha-seong Kim strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 10th highest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. 60% of Mitch Keller's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (851/1,456) this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- first Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 33 of 276 right-handed batters (12%) this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- third Percentile.

Mitch Keller has struck out 31% (66/213) of left-handed batters he faced this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph'>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (19/79) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% -- 98th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 27th	SD	W 9-4	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PIT +125
Jun 25th	@MIA	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 7	MIA +144
Jun 24th	@MIA	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 8	MIA +144
Jun 23rd	@MIA	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	PIT +177
Jun 22nd	@MIA	L 4-6	+1.5 L	O 7	MIA +140

Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
IF
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	102	6	10	2
RN.Martinez, P	31	0	0	5
RL.Garcia, P	22	1	1	0
LR.Kerr, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1H.Kim, 2B	0-5	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	1-4	1	0
3J.Soto, LF	0-3	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-4	0	0
5X.Bogaerts, SS	2-4	0	1
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-4	0	0
7G.Sanchez, C	0-4	0	0
8M.Carpenter, DH	1-2	0	0
8R. Odor, PR	1-1	0	0
8R. Odor, DH	1-1	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	1-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	104	6	5	1
RC.Mlodzinski, P	13	1	2	0
RY.De Los Santos, P	11	1	0	0
RC.Bolton, P	29	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Joe, LF	1-4	1	0	2
1C.Joe, RF	1-4	1	0	2
2A.McCutchen, DH	1-5	0	0	0
3H.Davis, RF	2-4	1	0	2
3J.Delay, C	0-0	0	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
5R.Castro, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Gonzales, SS	1-3	1	0	0
7J.Suwinski, CF	0-2	1	0	0
8J.Triolo, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	0-2	0	0	0
9J.Palacios, PH	1-2	1	0	1
9J.Palacios, LF	1-2	1	0	1