Padres vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2023
Padres at Pirates
11:05 pm • SportsNet PTStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
M.Keller | 4.21 | 13-9 | ||
B.Snell | 2.25 | 14-9 |
Padres at Pirates Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Padres 4-3 | -1.5+105 | o8-115 | -160 | |
Pirates 0-0 | +1.5-126 | u8-105 | +134 |
Wednesday 11:05 p.m.
June 28, 2023PNC ParkPittsburgh
Padres vs. Pirates Expert Picks
The Degenerates
504d ago
Last 30d: 59-65-1 (-11.8u)
Under 8.5-110
3u
Sean Koerner
504d ago
Last 30d: 32-26-0 (+2.7u)
B.Snell u7.5 Ks-106
1.06u
Projecting closer to -150
Mjaybrod
504d ago
Last 30d: 113-105-0 (+2.1u)
Under 8-105
1u
Wish I got 8.5, but that’s life eh - SnellSZN
Markus Markets
504d ago
Last 30d: 72-79-2 (+15.7u)
B.Snell o17.5 Outs+100
1u
M.Keller o5.5 Ks-130
1u
Sandy Plashkes
504d ago
Last 30d: 121-118-0 (+8.2u)
B.Snell u7.5 Ks-141
$71.00
I’m going to regret this deeply by ~10pm ET. See you then!
Jim Sannes
504d ago
Last 30d: 15-21-0 (+10.8u)
M.Keller o5.5 Ks-122
1u
Available at FanDuel. It's not a fun matchup for Keller, but the Padres do have a 23.3% strikeout rate on the active roster against righties. Keller, himself, has gone back to using his slider a bit more across his past eight starts. In that time, his strikeout rate is 27.8%. The Padres do draw out plate appearances, which can be a bummer, but Keller gets plenty of leash. I have him projected for 7.3 strikeouts here, enough cushion to lay -122 on the over.
PIT +140
1.12u
My model is very high on Blake Snell given his recent improvements, and I'm still showing value in the Pirates here. My model puts them at 46.7% to win, up from 41.7% implied at this number. Mitch Keller hasn't been as stellar of late as he was to open the season, but his underlying numbers are still solid with a 3.28 SIERA in his past 8 starts. The Padres' wRC+ falls to 98 against righties, so it's not as much of a nightmare matchup as it may seem. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close, pushing me to take the plus money on the dog.
Capper Central
505d ago
Last 30d: 67-63-0 (-2.5u)
M.Keller o17.5 Outs-145
$100.00
Personal play
BJ Cunningham
505d ago
Last 30d: 62-53-8 (+4.7u)
PIT +140
1.4u
PIT +133 (F5)
1.33u
Charlie DiSturco
505d ago
Last 30d: 50-67-2 (-0.5u)
Under 9-120
1u
Padres vs. Pirates Previews & Analysis
Padres vs. Pirates Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Padres vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Pirates vs. Padres Injury Updates
Pirates Injuries
- Ke'Bryan HayesIF
Hayes is out with back
Out
- Johan OviedoP
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Endy RodriguezC
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Padres Injuries
- Mason McCoyIF
McCoy is out with back
Out
Padres vs. Pirates Box Score
Padres Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LB.Snell, P | 102 | 6 | 10 | 2 | |
RN.Martinez, P | 31 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
RL.Garcia, P | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
LR.Kerr, P | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1H.Kim, 2B | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2F.Tatis, RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
3J.Soto, LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4M.Machado, 3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5X.Bogaerts, SS | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6J.Cronenworth, 1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7G.Sanchez, C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8M.Carpenter, DH | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8R. Odor, PR | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8R. Odor, DH | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9T.Grisham, CF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pirates Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RM.Keller, P | 104 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
RC.Mlodzinski, P | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
RY.de los Santos, P | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RC.Bolton, P | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1C.Joe, LF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
1C.Joe, RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
2A.McCutchen, DH | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3H.Davis, RF | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
3J.Delay, C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4C.Santana, 1B | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
5R.Castro, 2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6N.Gonzales, SS | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7J.Suwinski, CF | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8J.Triolo, 3B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
9A.Hedges, C | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.Palacios, PH | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9J.Palacios, LF | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Padres vs. Pirates Odds Comparison
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Padres at Pirates Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Padres 4-3 | N/A | N/A |
Pirates 0-0 | N/A | N/A |