Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - August 15, 2023

FOR LEAFS

Wheeler comes into this matchup with some slight season long H/A splits. He’s dealing a 4.07 era at home and a stellar 3.5 on the road. He has subpar stats against this jags lineup, but he’s only given up 5 walks in 80 PA vs them and 4 were to Brandon belt! Zach just pitched a gem against them going for just three hits and throwing 107 P. On the road he’s gone over this total 9-3 times, and two of the loses were in early May during his first four starts. Wheelers gotten better as the season has progressed and is on a 9-1 run hitting over this total seeing his PC go over 100 in 7 of the games. This team needs their SPs to go deep and that what wheelers done all year. My sims have wheeler at 6.2 IP. The play: Z.Wheeler o 17.5 outs -165 (parlaying with S.Espinal u .5 HR on barstool for -144)

Available at FanDuel. Most books have the Jays at -105 or so, so getting them at plus money is enticing. They're also a value by my model with win odds at 52.5% versus 50.0% implied at even money. This is all due to the gains Yusei Kikuchi has made the past few months. In 13 starts with fewer changeups, Kikuchi has a 2.79 ERA. His peripherals aren't quite as dazzling (a 3.77 SIERA), but those two have typically been flipped for Kikuchi (bad results/good peripherals). Even if we assume he regresses toward the underlying numbers, though, it's clear Kikuchi is a better pitcher than he was earlier in the year as he has begun to successfully suppress hard contact. He gets a tough matchup with Zack Wheeler on the opposing side, but with this one in Toronto, I do think we should be high on the Jays relative to the market.

Bet to -118