Pirates vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - September 8, 2023

Pirates at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSE

Pittsburgh Pirates

6-4

2 - 8

Atlanta Braves

6-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Elder			3.81	12-4
M.Keller			4.21	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 6-4	+1.5-111	o9.5-105	+169
Braves 6-3	-1.5-108	u9.5-115	-207

Friday 11:20 p.m.

September 08, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

Over 9.5-105

M.Keller o5.5 Hits Allowed-115

Keller is over this line in 6/9 since the ASB, incl 9 H allowed vs the Braves a month ago. He’s allowed 91 hits in 87.2 away innings this season - and PIT seems inclined to allow him to eat innings. And unsurprisingly, ATL is top 3 in wRC versus each of Keller’s 4 main pitches (his three fastball variations and the sweeper).

PIT +180

0.5u

PIT +170 (F5)

0.5u

Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 3.3 runs per game while leading since last season -- second-highest in MLB (237 games). The Pirates have allowed 3.1 runs per game while trailing since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB (236 games).

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Featured Insight
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .676 since last season -- third-worst in MLB. BravesRPs have allowed an OPS of just .647 (4,362 PAs) since last season -- third-best in MLB.

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4 Best Bets from Friday's MLB Slate
Action Network Staff•
Sep 8, 2023 UTC

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The Pirates are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

Bryan Reynolds is batting .303 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for seventh best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Bryce Elder has thrown his slider 36% of the time this season -- tied for 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 55 total SL-- 90th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (228/555) when behind in the count this season -- highest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% -- 100th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (19 Total Bases / 89 ABs) on fastballs away this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 7th	STL	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 10	ATL -345
Sep 6th	STL	L 6-11	-1.5 L	O 9.5	STL -350
Sep 5th	STL	L 6-10	-1.5 L	O 10.5	STL -220
Sep 3rd	@LAD	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 9	LAD -106
Sep 3rd	@LAD	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 10	ATL -120

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out with elbow
Out

Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
IF
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	95	5	4	8
LJ.Hernandez, P	28	2	4	0
RH.Stratton, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Bae, CF	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4J.Suwinski, LF	1-4	1	1	2
5E.Rodriguez, C	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Palacios, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7L.Peguero, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Rivas, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
9A.Williams, SS	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Elder, P	95	7	9	2
LD.Lee, P	13	1	0	0
RB.Heller, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	3-4	2	1	2
2O.Albies, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
3M.Olson, 1B	2-3	2	0	0
4M.Ozuna, DH	1-5	1	0	0
5E.Rosario, LF	2-4	2	1	3
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	0	2
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	3-4	1	0	1
9N.Lopez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0