Rangers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - July 27, 2023

Rangers at Astros

12:10 am • SportsNet SW

Texas Rangers

0-0

13 - 5

Houston Astros

0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rangers 0-0	+1.5-130	o8.5-125	+150
Astros 0-2	-1.5+110	u8.5+105	-184

Thursday 12:10 a.m.

July 27, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

Over 8.5+100

Over 8.5-105

TEX +155

1.55u

TEX +155 (F5)

1.55u

TEX +150 (F5)

1.5u

TEX +158

1.26u

Available at FanDuel. My model doesn't have a high opinion of Andrew Heaney and is still showing value here, pushing me to buy into it. Heaney has had big issues with hard contact, and that's why the model is low on him. But the Rangers' offense could potentially match some of that output. Framber Valdez is a great pitcher, but he's facing an offense -- even without Corey Seager -- with a 130 wRC+ against lefties on the current active roster. It's a tough spot for Valdez, who has had some rougher outings of late. My model puts the Rangers' win odds at 44.3%, up from 38.8% implied.

A.Heaney u4.5 Ks+126

1.13u

Available at FanDuel. Similar to the Lorenzen prop, I have Heaney projected right at this number (4.5). That implies pretty much anything plus money on the under is a good bet, and this one's at +126. Heaney has made nine starts since he started to re-increase his slider usage, and even in that time, his strikeout rate is just 23.7%. He's facing a team with a 17.0% strikeout rate on its active roster against lefties. Although I have faith that the Rangers can win this game, I still think this number is too high, and we should be pushed to take the under.

TEX +155

0.78u

Bet to +137

TEX +158 (F5)

0.79u

Bet to +150

TEX +155

1.55u

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The Astros are 13-10 (.565) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Kyle Tucker has a swing rate of 44% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- second highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Opponents are hitting .468 (22-for-47) against Andrew Heaney on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP-- fifth Percentile.

Alex Bregman has a miss rate of only 14% on elevated fastballs this season -- 14th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Andrew Heaney has located his fastball up 67% of the time this season -- fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 26th	TEX	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 9	HOU -140
Jul 25th	TEX	W 10-9	+1.5 W	O 8.5	HOU -105
Jul 23rd	@ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8	HOU -240
Jul 23rd	@ATH	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	ATH -200
Jul 22nd	@ATH	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	HOU -245

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Heaney, P	90	5	3	3
RJ.Leclerc, P	24	2	2	0
RO.White, P	32	2	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	3-3	3	1	2
1J.Smith, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
2E.Duran, SS	1-5	1	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	2-4	2	1	3
4A.Garcia, RF	1-5	1	1	4
5J.Jung, 3B	2-5	0	0	0
6J.Heim, C	0-2	0	0	0
6S.Huff, PH	1-3	1	1	1
6S.Huff, C	1-3	1	1	1
7M.Garver, DH	2-4	1	0	0
8R.Grossman, LF	2-5	2	0	0
9L.Taveras, CF	2-5	2	0	3

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	80	3.2	1	6
RS.Martinez, P	30	1	1	7
RR.Montero, P	14	1.1	1	0
LP.Mushinski, P	29	2	2	0
RR.Stanek, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
1G.Kessinger, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
1G.Kessinger, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
2J.Pena, SS	2-4	1	0	0
3K.Tucker, RF	0-1	1	0	0
3J.Meyers, CF	0-1	0	0	0
4A.Bregman, 3B	2-3	1	1	3
4M.Dubon, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
5Y.Alvarez, DH	1-2	0	0	0
6J.Abreu, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.McCormick, CF	0-3	1	0	0
7C.McCormick, RF	0-3	1	0	0
8C.Julks, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-1	0	0	0
9Y.Diaz, C	1-3	1	1	2