Rangers vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - July 29, 2023

Rangers at Padres

1:40 am • SDPA

Texas Rangers

0-0

1 - 7

San Diego Padres

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Musgrove			3.05	10-3
D.Dunning			3.70	12-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rangers 0-0	+1.5-142	o8.5-110	+142
Padres 4-3	-1.5+118	u8.5-110	-171

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

July 29, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

SD -158

0.35u

TEX o3.5-110

$27.50

SD -164

Dane Dunning: 4.95 xERA, 4.72 xFIPvs. 3.18 actual 15.4 K% but a .269 BABIP has kept him out of harm’s way. He’s bottom 5% in whiff rate, below-average in every metric aside from BB% (and 54th percentile in barrels). Saw some cracks vs. LAD but should come again here vs SD bats in their last moment on panic No Seager too for Musgrove who has quietly been dominant. He is 11th in Stuff+ over L30 and has a 3.11 xERA & 32.5 HH%. Has shored up in barrels, has similar xBA/xSLG as last season and K% back toward 25% (w an even better BB%)

Under 8.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -115

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Friday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Jul 28, 2023 UTC
Koerner's MLB Strikeout Projections for Friday
Sean Koerner•
Jul 28, 2023 UTC
Back This Dominant Padres Ace! | 2 MLB Best Bets for Rangers-Padres, Nationals-Mets
Charlie Disturco•
Jul 28, 2023 UTC
MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Jul 28, 2023 UTC

See more MLB Coverage

The Padres are just 6-25 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Xander Bogaerts had an OPS of .686 with two strikes last season -- eighth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Dane Dunning allowed an OPS of .590 (333 PAs) with two strikes last season -- 14th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 10th Percentile.

Adolis Garcia has a miss rate of 24% on inside fastballs since last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Joe Musgrove has located his fastball inside 45% of the time since last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 26th	PIT	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	PIT -190
Jul 26th	PIT	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	SD -290
Jul 25th	PIT	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -275
Jul 23rd	@DET	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	DET -215
Jul 22nd	@DET	W 14-3	-1.5 W	O 10	SD -140

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Dunning, P	90	5	4	3
RY.Rodriguez, P	27	1	1	4
RS.Howard, P	36	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	0-4	0	1
2T.Jankowski, LF	0-5	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	1-2	0	0
4A.Garcia, RF	1-4	0	0
5J.Jung, 3B	3-4	1	0
6R.Grossman, DH	0-3	0	0
7M.Garver, C	0-2	0	0
7S.Huff, C	0-1	0	0
8E.Duran, SS	0-4	0	0
9L.Taveras, CF	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Musgrove, P	105	6	5	0
RN.Martinez, P	16	1	2	0
LT.Cosgrove, P	16	1	1	0
RL.Garcia, P	20	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1H.Kim, 2B	1-2	2	0	0
1M.Batten, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	2-5	1	1	2
3J.Soto, LF	2-3	0	0	1
3T. Kohlwey, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3T. Kohlwey, LF	0-1	0	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-3	0	0	3
5X.Bogaerts, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	2-4	1	0	0
7L.Campusano, DH	0-3	1	0	0
8G.Sanchez, C	1-3	1	0	1
9T.Grisham, CF	0-2	1	0	0