Rays vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2024

Rays at Yankees

5:35 pm • BSSUN

Tampa Bay Rays

7-8

4 - 5

New York Yankees

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Gil			3.50	15-7
A.Civale			5.07	2-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 7-8	+1.5-185	o8-115	+110
Yankees 8-9	-1.5+155	u8-105	-130

Sunday 5:35 p.m.

April 21, 2024

Yankee StadiumBronx

Under 8-105

... home team went under by 5 and now home team is fav or slight dogs Overall: 758-545-69,58% (ROI:12%) Season:6-3-0,67% (ROI:29%)

TB +100 (F5)

... f5 disappointing dogs Overall: 82-58-28,59% (ROI:23%) Season:2-2-1,50% (ROI:3%)

TB +110

NYY -0.5 (F5)+110

1.65u

Over 8-120

0.46u

NYY -125

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -137

L.Gil u6.5 Ks-138

0.5u

Ballpark pal projects 5.22 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -191 giving value to this number

NYY -130

0.77u

Under 4.5 (F5)-110

1.1u

A.Civale u5.5 Ks-140

0.89u

L.Gil u15.5 Outs-145

1.45u

Gil just doesn’t hit the strike zone with regularity - a 56% strike percentage and all three games below 62%. If he qualified, he’d have the highest pitches per PA by a lot (4.56) and the second lowest strike percentage, out of 138 pitchers. Has yet to finish 5 this season - bullpen in decent shape after today, and his innings are being monitored after missing most of last season.

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Featured Insight
Yankees left-handed hitters have struck out just 12% against RHP over the last week -- second lowest in MLB. Rays RPs have a strikeout rate of just 10% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- lowest in MLB.

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The Yankees are 58-15 (.795) when they've hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .690.

Anthony Volpe has an OPS of just .686 since last season -- eighth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Pete Fairbanks has allowed an OPS of just .545 (220 PAs) since last season -- 11th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 9 of 38 right-handed batters (24%) this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (19/55) against Aaron Civale this season -- 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- 93rd Percentile.

Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 58% of the time (52/89) on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 14 of 61 batters (23%) this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 20th	TB	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 9	TB -125
Apr 19th	TB	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY -182
Apr 17th	@TOR	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYY -102
Apr 16th	@TOR	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	TOR -102
Apr 15th	@TOR	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	TOR -105

Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out

Clarke Schmidt
P
Schmidt is questionable with back
Questionable

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	104	4.2	5	5
RP.Maton, P	6	0.1	1	0
RE.Ramirez, P	35	3	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1Y.Diaz, DH	0-5	0	0
2R.Arozarena, CF	0-4	0	0
3R.Palacios, LF	1-3	1	0
3H.Ramirez, PH	0-1	0	0
4I.Paredes, 3B	0-2	1	0
5A.Shenton, 1B	0-3	0	0
6A.Rosario, RF	2-4	1	2
7C.Mead, 2B	1-3	0	1
8B.Rortvedt, C	0-4	0	0
9J.Caballero, SS	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Gil, P	97	5.2	9	0
RL.Weaver, P	20	1.1	1	0
RD.Santana, P	27	1	1	3
LV.Gonzalez, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	0-5	0	0
2J.Soto, RF	0-4	1	0
3A.Judge, CF	1-4	0	0
4G.Stanton, DH	0-2	1	0
5A.Rizzo, 1B	1-3	1	1
6G.Torres, 2B	1-3	1	0
7A.Verdugo, LF	3-4	1	2
8J.Trevino, C	1-4	0	1
9O.Cabrera, 3B	2-4	0	1