Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - August 16, 2023

Red Sox at Nationals

11:05 pm • MASN

Boston Red Sox

4-4

2 - 6

Washington Nationals

5-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			4.42	7-10
J.Paxton			4.50	7-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 4-4	-1.5+103	o9+100	-161
Nationals 5-4	+1.5-123	u9-120	+130

Wednesday 11:05 p.m.

August 16, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

J.Paxton u5.5 Ks-106

1.04u

Available at FanDuel. As mentioned when discussing the Nationals' moneyline, Paxton's velocity has been down recently. In that six-start sample, he has gone over this number just twice, both of which came at home. He's now on the road and facing an opposing offense with a 19.6% strikeout rate against lefties. That means there's a path to an under even if Paxton's velo does go back up. We've got two paths to an under here, and that's enough for me to feel good laying -106.

WSH +142

1.14u

Available at FanDuel. This likely stems from a smidge of worry on my end about the health of James Paxton. It's always a talking point, but Paxton's velocity has been down his past six starts. His average fastball velo was the lowest it has been all season -- by a wide margin -- last time out. He still had great results in that game, but overall in six starts with the velo down, Paxton pairs a 4.45 ERA with a 4.20 SIERA. The opposing Nationals rarely strike out, which allows them to hold a 115 wRC+ against lefties on the current active roster. I think the Nationals put up a fight in this game, and my model has their win odds above the implied mark of 41.3%.

WSH +150

0.75u

Bet to +136

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Aug 16, 2023 UTC

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The Nationals are 4-2 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rafael Devers has an OPS of .865 since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .794 (380 PAs) since last season -- ninth worst among qualified RPs-- fifth Percentile.

29% of Rafael Devers strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 44% of MacKenzie Gore's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (57/115) over the last 30 days (5 games) -- tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% -- third Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 7.64 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 -- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 15th	BOS	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 9.5	BOS +144
Aug 13th	ATH	W 8-7	-1.5 L	O 10	WSH -143
Aug 12th	ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9.5	WSH -143
Aug 11th	ATH	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 9	WSH -120
Aug 10th	@PHI	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 9	PHI +210

Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	92	6	3	2
RJ.Schreiber, P	14	1	0	0
RG.Whitlock, P	25	1	1	4

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Refsnyder, LF	0-4	0	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Turner, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
4T.Story, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Yoshida, PH	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Yoshida, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Verdugo, RF	1-3	1	0	0
7P.Reyes, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
8T.Casas, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	85	6.1	7	0
RJ.Weems, P	11	1	0	2
LJ.Ferrer, P	10	0.2	2	0
RK.Finnegan, P	19	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	2-4	1	0	0
3J.Meneses, DH	2-3	1	0	0
4K.Ruiz, C	1-4	1	1	3
5S.Garrett, LF	2-4	2	2	2
6D.Smith, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8M. Chavis, 2B	1-4	1	1	1
9A.Call, CF	0-2	0	0	0