Red Sox vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2024

Red Sox at Rays

10:50 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

2 - 1

Tampa Bay Rays

0-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Pepiot			3.60	8-8
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	-1.5+170	o7.5-112	-105
Rays 0-1	+1.5-200	u7.5-108	-115

Wednesday 10:50 p.m.

September 18, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

BOS +100

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-118

TB -120

T.Houck o4.5 Ks-135

1.35u

Tanner Houck over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 Fliff/BET365) - Over in 64% of starts this season with an average of 5.4 Ks per game - Over in 77% of road starts (10/13 games) including 4 straight with 7,8,6,7 - Facing TB who strikeout at the 5th highest rate in the MLB - TB lineup is terrible vs RHP with all but Diaz batting .238 or worse - Houck has good history vs TB going over in both meetings vs them this season with 7 and 5 Ks and over in 3/L5 meetings - 7/9 batter in TB's projected lineup have a 20% K% or higher vs Houck since 2019 Good K pitcher vs bad K% team =🤑 Join the discord for more plays! Link in my twitter bio! 💰

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The Red Sox are just 14-20 (.412) after a home win this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.

Yandy Diaz has a groundball rate of 56% this season -- second highest in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Tanner Houck this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

29% of Rafael Devers strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 14th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 52% of Ryan Pepiot's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (1,049/1,390) vs left-handed batters this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 47% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (276/497) against Tanner Houck this season -- 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% -- 92nd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 17th	BOS	W 8-3	+1.5 W	O 8	TB +112
Sep 15th	@CLE	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8	CLE +105
Sep 14th	@CLE	L 1-6	+1.5 L	U 8	CLE +120
Sep 13th	@CLE	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	TB +160
Sep 12th	@CLE	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	TB +120

Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P	60	4	4	1
LZ.Penrod, P	7	1	0	0
RC.Criswell, P	10	1	2	0
RJ.Slaten, P	25	1	2	0
RC.Martin, P	9	1	1	0
RK.Jansen, P	25	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	0	0	1
2R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4M.Yoshida, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4R.Gonzalez, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4R.Gonzalez, DH	0-0	0	0	0
5C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7T.Casas, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
8T.Story, SS	2-3	2	1	1
9C.Rafaela, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
9E.Valdez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9N.Sogard, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Pepiot, P	76	6	12	1
RD.Rasmussen, P	36	1.1	2	1
LR.Lovelady, P	3	0.2	0	0
RH.Bigge, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Morel, LF	0-4	0	0
2B.Lowe, 2B	1-4	0	0
3J.Caminero, 3B	0-4	0	0
4J.Aranda, 1B	0-4	0	0
5J.Lowe, RF	2-4	1	0
6J.DeLuca, CF	2-3	0	0
7A.Shenton, DH	1-3	0	0
7J.Caballero, PR	0-0	0	0
8T.Walls, SS	2-3	0	1
9B.Rortvedt, C	0-2	0	0
9Y.Diaz, PH	0-1	0	0
9L.Driscoll, C	0-1	0	0