Red Sox vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 2, 2023

Red Sox at Royals

12:10 am • BSKC

Boston Red Sox

4-4

2 - 13

Kansas City Royals

6-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J. Lyles			6.28	6-17
J.Paxton			4.50	7-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 4-4	-1.5-125	o10-105	-200
Royals 6-4	+1.5+105	u10-115	+164

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

September 02, 2023

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

Over 9.5-110

Available at FanDuel. I do think there's value in the Royals' moneyline, but I'd rather take the over on the total instead. The reason I looked at those two markets is that James Paxton hasn't looked right recently. His velocity has been down for his past 9 starts, and he has a 4.69 SIERA in that time. A lot of that has come against better offenses than this, and he did shut out the Royals for 5.1 innings during this stretch. But Kansas City had a 46.7% hard-hit rate in that game, so the zero earned runs allowed likely came with a bit of luck. The Red Sox are facing Jordan Lyles and the Royals' rough bullpen on the other side, meaning there's a scenario in which they hit the over by themselves. But I do think the Royals' offense will contribute at least something here.

KC +168

0.84u

Bet to +142

Featured Insight
The Royals have scored 2.3 runs per game while trailing over the last two weeks -- fifth-highest in MLB (119 games). The Red Sox have allowed 2.3 runs per game while leading over the last two weeks -- tied for seventh-highest in MLB (100 games).

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Featured Insight
The Red Sox are batting .252 versus relief pitchers since last season -- second-best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .257 (1,059-for-4,119) against RoyalsRPs since last season -- second-worst in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 30-52 (.366) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Adam Duvall has an OPS of .933 this season -- ninth best among hitters with at least 199 total PA's-- 97th Percentile. Tucker Davidson has allowed an OPS of .843 (192 PAs) this season -- ninth worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Masataka Yoshida has struck out in just 12% of PA's this season -- seventh lowest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Jordan Lyles has a strikeout rate of just 16% this season -- tied for third lowest among qualified SPs-- ninth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	87-75	43-38	44-37	40-38	46-37
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	69-88-5	38-42-1	31-46-4	32-46	36-42-5
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	86-76	45-36	41-40	49-29	36-47
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 31st	PIT	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 9.5	PIT +105
Aug 30th	PIT	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -150
Aug 29th	PIT	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 9	PIT -120
Aug 27th	@SEA	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 8	SEA +260
Aug 26th	@SEA	L 2-15	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SEA +210

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable

Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	36	1.1	0	6
RM. Llovera, P	11	0.2	0	0
LB.Walter, P	82	4	5	7
LJ.Jacques, P	27	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	1-4	1	1	2
2R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
2E.Valdez, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4T.Casas, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	0-2	0	0	0
5C.Rafaela, PH	1-2	0	0	0
5C.Rafaela, CF	1-2	0	0	0
6M.Yoshida, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7T.Story, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8L.Urias, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
8L.Urias, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
9C.Wong, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RJ. Lyles, P		114	8	7	2
RS.Cruz, P		26	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	2-4	1	0	2
1M.Garcia, SS	2-4	1	0	2
2B.Witt, SS	3-5	2	1	2
2S.Taylor, PR	0-0	0	0	0
2S.Taylor, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3S.Perez, 1B	3-5	2	2	4
4M.Massey, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
5F.Fermin, C	2-4	1	0	0
6N.Velazquez, LF	2-5	2	1	2
7D.Waters, RF	1-4	2	0	0
7D.Waters, CF	1-4	2	0	0
8N.Loftin, DH	2-3	1	0	1
9K.Isbel, CF	1-3	2	0	2
9D.Blanco, RF	0-1	0	0	0